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-   -   Chiefs Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=264296)

cdcox 09-26-2012 08:12 PM

Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012
 
nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

cdcox 09-26-2012 08:17 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Win distribution after week 3:

cdcox 09-26-2012 08:18 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Draft odds after week 3:

Mr_Tomahawk 09-26-2012 08:19 PM

ummmmm....


D) All of the above?

FAX 09-26-2012 08:21 PM

Hmmm. That second one is a little lopsided for my taste. Looks like it has a pretty nasty mole, too.

FAX

Count Zarth 09-26-2012 08:25 PM

Our odds of making the playoffs are lower than Cassel's odds of beating playoff teams.

Sounds about right, since he would have to beat multiple playoff teams in order for us to make the playoffs!

Mr_Tomahawk 09-26-2012 08:26 PM

What are the odds that we draft a QB in the first rnd...?

Can your calculator do that...?

Count Zarth 09-26-2012 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk (Post 8953355)
What are the odds that we draft a QB in the first rnd...?

Can your calculator do that...?

Calculators work on logic, and Pioli's brain is illogical.

FAX 09-26-2012 08:34 PM

Oh ... I get it now. Each graph is only for KC. I couldn't figure it out at first on account of all the team names on the left.

So, the most probable scenario at this point is 6 "additional" wins or 6 "total" wins?

FAX

cdcox 09-26-2012 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FAX (Post 8953369)
Oh ... I get it now. Each graph is only for KC. I couldn't figure it out at first on account of all the team names on the left.

So, the most probable scenario at this point is 6 "additional" wins or 6 "total" wins?

FAX

Total wins.

Bump 09-26-2012 08:37 PM

I'm on the one in fifteeno for Geno wagon

Buck 09-26-2012 08:38 PM

Can you do San Diego if you have time? Thanks.

mikey23545 09-26-2012 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buck (Post 8953374)
Can you do San Diego if you have time? Thanks.

The pockmark factor makes any calculations unreliable.

FAX 09-26-2012 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox (Post 8953372)
Total wins.

Ouch.

FAX

milkman 09-26-2012 08:45 PM

I struggle with graph reading, so correct me if I'm wrong.

The odds suggest at this point that the Chiefs are most likely to draft number 6 overall?


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