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Great Expectations 10-05-2012 12:25 PM

Debate Bounce
 
For those of you who closely follow the polls what kind of bounce did Romney get from the debate? What does that do to his chances of winning the general election?

King_Chief_Fan 10-05-2012 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great Expectations (Post 8979110)
For those of you who closely follow the polls what kind of bounce did Romney get from the debate? What does that do to his chances of winning the general election?

too early say I guess...haven't seen bounce data yet.

It is way to early to declare win after one round

Chocolate Hog 10-05-2012 12:27 PM

None according the Gallup tracking poll as of yesterday

thecoffeeguy 10-05-2012 12:50 PM

Read an article today that Romney got a boost in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Either leading or tied with Obama. I'll find the article and link it.

Ya, he did get a bounce after trouncing Obama Wednesday night.

alpha_omega 10-05-2012 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great Expectations (Post 8979110)
For those of you who closely follow the polls what kind of bounce did Romney get from the debate? What does that do to his chances of winning the general election?

The data will be out next week Pip.

alnorth 10-05-2012 01:00 PM

This is far, far, far too early to say. This weekend's numbers may also be too early, you need to wait till Monday or Tuesday.

Based on history though, Romney's probably not going to get much of a bounce. Even if you factor in that Romney got one of the clearest "won the debate" flash polls in a while, there is a very weak correlation between perception of who won the debate, and actual change in the poll results.

We've had many elections where the candidate perceived to have lost a debate actually improved in the polls the following week.

alnorth 10-05-2012 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thecoffeeguy (Post 8979165)
Read an article today that Romney got a boost in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Either leading or tied with Obama. I'll find the article and link it.

Ya, he did get a bounce after trouncing Obama Wednesday night.

No one has a post-debate poll, and "We Ask America" + Rasmussen aren't very credible polling companies.

thecoffeeguy 10-05-2012 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 8979196)
No one has a post-debate poll, and "We Ask America" + Rasmussen aren't very credible polling companies.

Says who? you?

alnorth 10-05-2012 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thecoffeeguy (Post 8979202)
Says who? you?

We Ask America is a joke. They are brand-new in 2012 so no history, they have a pro-GOP house effect that exceeds even Rasmussen, and their performance in predicting the Scott Walker recall election was pathetic.

Rasmussen used to be good, but they were utterly pathetic in 2010, primarily because they don't poll cell phones and many more people have cut their land line cord today than 4 years ago. Cell phone-only users tend to skew Democrat. Rasmussen is, and will continue to be, a pathetic joke until they start calling cell phones.

This isn't uninformed opinion, the fact that these two pollsters suck is based on data.

Great Expectations 10-05-2012 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alpha_omega (Post 8979187)
The data will be out next week Pip.

Thank you Miss Havisham

RINGLEADER 10-05-2012 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bo's Pelini (Post 8979115)
None according the Gallup tracking poll as of yesterday

Won't show up on Gallup for a week. Might show up on Rasmussen this weekend.

The state polling seems to be up though...Romney's now up in Florida, Virginia, and one point behind in Ohio. If that is shown to be the case by more than the two firms I've seen today then it is a major change...

mnchiefsguy 10-05-2012 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER (Post 8979581)
Won't show up on Gallup for a week. Might show up on Rasmussen this weekend.

The state polling seems to be up though...Romney's now up in Florida, Virginia, and one point behind in Ohio. If that is shown to be the case by more than the two firms I've seen today then it is a major change...

Which two polls have seen that reflect that? I would be interested in seeing those numbers. Thanks!

whoman69 10-05-2012 03:52 PM

We probably won't know until Tuesday. If its a bump of more than 2 points then it may be a trend instead of a bump.

KCTitus 10-05-2012 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 8979196)
No one has a post-debate poll, and "We Ask America" + Rasmussen aren't very credible polling companies.

Rasmussen was #1 most accurate subsequent to the 2008 election...I'd say that lends some credibility.

chiefqueen 10-05-2012 05:21 PM

Whatever bounce there is will be back to where it was on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week based on today's unemployment report.

The debate outcome may keep in Romney on Ohio TV 7 to 10 days longer (before the debate there were threads on Free Republic that Romney was probably going to "pull out" of Ohio towards the end of next week. If/When Romney pulls out of Ohio this election is OVER) but, based on today's jobless report I anticipate Obama regaining his pre-debate lead about the time of the second debate.


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