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petegz28 10-31-2012 09:51 AM

Mitt Romney set to win, maybe by a mile
 
One week from today, the Boston Herald’s front page will either read “Obama Pulls Out Victory” Or “Romney Wins.” (Actually, given that this is the Herald the headline will be something clever like, “He’s Barack In Charge!” or “Sweet Mitt-ory!”)

I predict the latter. One week from today, Mitt wins.

I’ll even go a step farther. I’ll ask the question poll watchers across America are thinking but afraid to ask: Is this election over?

If your source of news is MSNBC or the Boston Globe-Democrat, obviously not. If anything, you think President Obama is on the verge of a massive sweep from North Carolina to Nevada.

But if you’ve been watching the polls and the campaigns at all objectively, you’re starting to see a picture develop. One where Romney’s the winner well before bedtime.

I believe we’re on the verge of a solid Romney win for two reasons. One is the objective evidence. The other is the ugly desperation of the Obama campaign in its final days.

First the numbers. And let’s start with the big one: Before Gallup suspended polling due to Hurricane Sandy, Mitt Romney was at or above 50 percent among likely voters for 14 consecutive days. No candidate above 50 percent at this point has ever lost the presidential race.

Ever.

The president, on the other hand, has peaked at 47 percent. The Battleground Poll model shows Obama losing 52 percent to 47 percent. Rasmussen daily tracking has Obama losing 49 percent to 47 percent. Pew has him tied: 47 percent to 47 percent. But more important, all the polls show Obama sliding or stuck. None show any upward movement.

Obama supporters are quick to tell you “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.” Two things: a) that’s what candidates who are behind always say; b) this is election day.

Thanks to early voting, millions of votes have already been cast. Four years ago on this day — Halloweek — Gallup released a poll of folks who’d already voted and found Obama was beating John McCain by 15 points.

This year? He’s losing to Mitt Romney 52 percent to 45 percent — a set swing of 22 points. The wrong way.

But who cares if Obama loses the popular vote (and he will, by the way)? All that matters is winning the Electoral College vote in the “swing states!” That’s Obama’s path to victory!

OK. But what is a swing state? Forget Virginia and Ohio. Obama’s lost so much ground he’s been forced to send Joe Biden to Pennsylvania and Bill Clinton to Minnesota — a state so blue Ronald Reagan never carried it.

The president, on the other hand, is only up by 6 among the loony-left granola-crunchers of Oregon.

Those are the numbers. The campaign Obama’s running looks even worse.

Between desperate, last-second proposals for a “Secretary of Business” and embarrassing ads comparing voting for Obama to a girl losing her virginity, you can smell the desperation from the Obama camp.

These are the juvenile stunts of a second-tier congressional race, not the campaign of an incumbent president. Then again, has any other president posted a picture of his opponent in a dunce cap? Or called his opponent a “bullsh***er” on the record? Obama’s done both.

The Obama campaign is angry, it’s negative and it acts like — to quote Bill Clinton — its feelings are hurt. In a word: Losing.

More and more people sense it. Ben Domenech wrote at RealClearPoli tics.com about an “undertow” that seems to be pulling Obama’s support away. It’s not that Obama’s supporters have turned on him. They’ve just abandoned him. They’ve drifted away. Like so many of us, they’re just done with Obama.

If I’m wrong, I’m counting on you to mock me for it mercilessly next Wednesday. But I’m not wrong.

And isn’t it interesting how many people already seem to know it.

Michael Graham hosts an afternoon drive time talk show on 96.9 WTKK.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opi...pi#articleFull

patteeu 10-31-2012 10:13 AM

Yeah, I don't think he's wrong. Romney's going to close this deal.

Brainiac 10-31-2012 10:27 AM

I'm looking forward to seeing an interview the day after the election with Barack and Michelle Obama. They're going to be pissed.

I watched an interview in 1980 with Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter the day after the election. You could tell they were pissed off and surprised at the election results. It was sweet.

This will be even sweeter. Maybe Michelle will tell us that she's no longer proud to be an American, since she told us that she was finally proud to be an American when Obama won the Democratic nomination four years ago.

SNR 10-31-2012 12:01 PM

I need to see some pretty solid polling data in Mitt's favor before I hand him Ohio. Sorry. That state is still Obama's to lose.

A 2-point lead by Romney in Ohio from the poll conducted by Bubbleshit University in Youngstown doesn't exactly sway me. Obama has had control of that state for nearly the entire election. I at least need to see a collective favoring of Romney by Rasmussen, Gallop, and whatever other polling agency people trust.

Direckshun 10-31-2012 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR (Post 9068420)
I need to see some pretty solid polling data in Mitt's favor before I hand him Ohio. Sorry. That state is still Obama's to lose.

A 2-point lead by Romney in Ohio from the poll conducted by Bubbleshit University in Youngstown doesn't exactly sway me. Obama has had control of that state for nearly the entire election. I at least need to see a collective favoring of Romney by Rasmussen, Gallop, and whatever other polling agency people trust.

Minus Rasmussen, I agree.

Mr. Kotter 10-31-2012 12:08 PM

Wow. If the Right can will their team to victory....they sure are giving it their best shot.

I won't say it can't happen, but it sure as hell doesn't look good for them...unless of course, there IS this huge liberal conspiracy of polling and Nate Silver!!!

Denial...it just ain't a river in Africa.

ChiefaRoo 10-31-2012 12:10 PM

Landslide dude, landslide.

Mr. Kotter 10-31-2012 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefaRoo (Post 9068458)
Landslide dude, landslide.

Keep drinkin' the Kool-Aid, Dittohead.

DJ's left nut 10-31-2012 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR (Post 9068420)
I need to see some pretty solid polling data in Mitt's favor before I hand him Ohio. Sorry. That state is still Obama's to lose.

A 2-point lead by Romney in Ohio from the poll conducted by Bubbleshit University in Youngstown doesn't exactly sway me. Obama has had control of that state for nearly the entire election. I at least need to see a collective favoring of Romney by Rasmussen, Gallop, and whatever other polling agency people trust.

Kinda my thought.

"Forget Ohio" seems a pretty flippant way to deal with what is likely the most important bellwether in the election. However, to address your post, I think he did take the lead in Ohio according to Rasmussen yesterday, didn't he?

SNR 10-31-2012 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun (Post 9068429)
Minus Rasmussen, I agree.

Whatever. I don't know polls.

I know poles. Specifically large chocolate ones. But not polls.

petegz28 10-31-2012 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR (Post 9068507)
Whatever. I don't know polls.

I know poles. Specifically large chocolate ones. But not polls.

I'm not sure that's something I would tout so proudly :evil:

SNR 10-31-2012 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by petegz28 (Post 9068525)
I'm not sure that's something I would tout so proudly :evil:

Then you will never know true joy when Geno Smith is chucking TDs to Dwayne Bowe for years to come

J Diddy 10-31-2012 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR (Post 9068830)
Then you will never know true joy when Geno Smith is chucking TDs to Dwayne Bowe for years to come

Geno's getting drafted by the Dolphins?

:evil:

patteeu 10-31-2012 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR (Post 9068420)
I need to see some pretty solid polling data in Mitt's favor before I hand him Ohio. Sorry. That state is still Obama's to lose.

A 2-point lead by Romney in Ohio from the poll conducted by Bubbleshit University in Youngstown doesn't exactly sway me. Obama has had control of that state for nearly the entire election. I at least need to see a collective favoring of Romney by Rasmussen, Gallop, and whatever other polling agency people trust.

I don't think Rasmussen or Gallup do state specific polling. I know one of them doesn't (I think it was a guy from Gallup explaining this on a radio talk show one day) and I don't think the other does either.

Graystoke 10-31-2012 02:01 PM

I don't trust any of the polls. Hell I lie for pollsters all the time.
I think Obama wins...but just barely.


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