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-   -   Elections 1980, revisited (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=266440)

alnorth 11-10-2012 12:08 PM

1980, revisited
 
Just wanted to illustrate the challenging environment the overwhelmingly-white GOP now finds themselves in.

Non-hispanic white vote:

1980 - 89%
1984 - 87%
1988 - 85%
1992 - 87%
1996 - 83%
2000 - 81%
2004 - 77%
2008 - 74%
2012 - 72%

In 1980, Reagan won by 9.7%. I did a little math, if that election had today's demographics by race (72% white, 13% black, 10% hispanic, 2% asian) and by gender (47% men, 53% women instead of 50/50), based on how they voted for reagan and carter back then in the 1980 exit polls, it looks like Reagan would have won the popular vote by only 8-tenths of a percent. (roughly 45.3% to 44.5%, in 1980 3rd party candidates took over 8%)

I was going to do something fancier with a new re-colored map and electoral college vote total, but the exit pollsters back then didnt do by-state exit polling, just national, so the best I can do is national popular vote.

If those minority racial groups voted the way they did this year, Reagan probably would have lost. Carter won fewer hispanics than Obama did, and Reagan won about 11% of black voters back then.

LiveSteam 11-10-2012 12:38 PM

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphoto...42009820_n.jpg

blaise 11-10-2012 01:00 PM

What about the white-hispanics?

alnorth 11-10-2012 01:05 PM

Another thing to consider.

The deck doesn't get more stacked against the Democrats than this. Unemployment is almost 8%, we're in the middle of implementing a very unpopular health care law (which is slowly becoming more accepted but still unpopular), and the people trust the other candidate more on creating jobs and the economy, yet....

...the Democrat still won? Are you freaking kidding me? What else do the republicans need to win, the democrat being caught on camera committing a violent felony? What would it have been like in a normal election cycle?

Stewie 11-10-2012 01:06 PM

This whole "Hispanic" thing cracks me up. They're decedents of Europeans that wiped out two civilizations in Mexico and Central America. Somehow they're heroes in modern day America and it's because???.... they speak Spanish? They're angry, self-centered and tolerated by Dems because they vote Democratic. They're white-folk under the guise of a "race."

Donger 11-10-2012 01:15 PM

And why do Hispanics vote overwhelmingly for the Democrat candidate?

blaise 11-10-2012 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth (Post 9103441)
Another thing to consider.

The deck doesn't get more stacked against the Democrats than this. Unemployment is almost 8%, we're in the middle of implementing a very unpopular health care law (which is slowly becoming more accepted but still unpopular), and the people trust the other candidate more on creating jobs and the economy, yet....

...the Democrat still won? Are you freaking kidding me? What else do the republicans need to win, the democrat being caught on camera committing a violent felony? What would it have been like in a normal election cycle?

I know liberals keep saying that, but Obama was elected after what was sold as a terrible Presidency and a lot of the blame was put on Bush. The second term was Obama's to be had from the start.
People will be sick of Democrats by 2016 and be looking to elect a Republican. It'll just depend on how polished the two candidates are.

BucEyedPea 11-10-2012 01:17 PM

How about we just embrace anyone who wants to live here as Americans. Coming here for liberty and more opportunity to make it big? Let go of this hyphenated American or foreign labels.

Personally, I think the average voter voted for divided govt. They were alarmed at at a one party rule did under the Republicans and then the Democrats who they felt went too far. Seems to me this was an invitation to stop the bickering.

J Diddy 11-10-2012 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stewie (Post 9103444)
This whole "Hispanic" thing cracks me up. They're decedents of Europeans that wiped out two civilizations in Mexico and Central America. Somehow they're heroes in modern day America and it's because???.... they speak Spanish? They're angry, self-centered and tolerated by Dems because they vote Democratic. They're white-folk under the guise of a "race."

I would say the cultural differences is what makes them different.

Stewie 11-10-2012 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J Diddy (Post 9103463)
I would say the cultural differences is what makes them different.

Different from whom?

J Diddy 11-10-2012 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stewie (Post 9103483)
Different from whom?

Culturally you have no differences between someone who lives in Mexico.

True or False

Stewie 11-10-2012 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J Diddy (Post 9103518)
Culturally you have no differences between someone who lives in Mexico.

True or False

I don't get this "culture" thing. I'm sure I live my life differently from someone else in the US based on "culture," much less what happens in Mexico. It's not a basis for for a pseudo-race of white people.

cosmo20002 11-10-2012 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donger (Post 9103456)
And why do Hispanics vote overwhelmingly for the Democrat candidate?

Probably because much of the anti-immigration rhetoric of the right comes off as mean-spirited and racist to immigrants in general and Hispanics in particular, and the they find it offensive to them.

I'm not saying all right-wing immigration positions ARE racist, but the way they are often presented, could, just maybe, be seen by Hispanics as slightly hostile toward Hispanics in general.

KChiefer 11-10-2012 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LiveSteam (Post 9103384)

That must be great for business in this "terrible" economy.

Stewie 11-10-2012 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cosmo20002 (Post 9103551)
Probably because much of the anti-immigration rhetoric of the right comes off as mean-spirited and racist to immigrants in general and Hispanics in particular, and the they find it offensive to them.

I'm not saying all right-wing immigration positions ARE racist, but the way they are often presented, could, just maybe, be seen by Hispanics as slightly hostile toward Hispanics in general.

JFC! Hispanic is NOT a race!!! They're European decedents and white as white.


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