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-   -   Chiefs Fair value for Bowe: 5 years, 58m, 20m guaranteed. (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=270096)

Douche Baggins 02-16-2013 12:15 PM

Fair value for Bowe: 5 years, 58m, 20m guaranteed.
 
Per this very insightful breakdown.

http://overthecap.com/estimating-the...r-dwayne-bowe/

It's long but here's the meat:

Quote:

Comparable Players

Most likely Bowe has two players in mind when looking for a new deal- Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson, who both signed new contracts in 2012. I also want to look at the performance of two older players, Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson, who both signed new contracts back in 2010. The table below compares the 3 year averages of each player prior to their extension:
http://i.imgur.com/Sci2qfA.jpg


Quote:

These are 3 year averages for D. Jackson and Bowe but only 2 year averages for V. Jackson since he held out all but 5 games of the 2010 season.

The numbers are adjusted for games missed to not inflate the performance of the others on the team when the player in question was injured.
http://overthecap.com/wp-content/upl.../WR-Market.png

Quote:

Now we can see how favorably Bowe compares to Jackson. Bowe was a more valuable player to the Chiefs than Jackson was to the Chargers and perhaps that is why the Chiefs are rumored to now want to keep him in the fold.

I think the most striking stat is the interception rate which pointed to Jackson seeing a lot of passes attempted for him getting picked off compared to Bowe. These numbers tell me that Bowe is a clear number 1 and was doing some pretty impressive things in Kansas City with almost no talent around him.
Quote:

Based on the comparative performance I am going to push and say on average Bowe is worth about 9.5% more than Jackson, which is pretty much the upper bound of his deal. That would equate to a deal worth a little below $12.2 million a year.

Now I donít think that will happen. Based on the same analysis Vincent was about 33% more valuable than DeSean but overall his deal ended up 14.5% higher in APY. Using the same adjustment Bowe should earn a realistic deal worth 4.2% more than Jackson, equating to about $11.58 million a season.

RUSH 02-16-2013 12:16 PM

Was just about to post this.

Great, great read.

Mother****erJones 02-16-2013 12:36 PM

He should get paid well. He's yet to have a real QB. And the one year Cassel did well he had 15 TDs

ChiefMojo 02-16-2013 12:46 PM

I've been figuring $10-12 millioin a year for 5-years was probably the ballpark we were talking for Bowe. This info pretty much puts it spot on. The Chiefs have the money to make this contract work for sure.

the Talking Can 02-16-2013 12:48 PM

done

NJChiefsFan 02-16-2013 12:49 PM

That was a really good article.

crazycoffey 02-16-2013 12:50 PM

To be clear, he's not been signed, this is hypothetical numbers based on other signings, right? Nut hooks to the OP

Douche Baggins 02-16-2013 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazycoffey (Post 9407427)
To be clear, he's not been signed, this is hypothetical numbers based on other signings, right? Nut hooks to the OP

The OP would say BOWE SIGNED if that were the case, you ****ing cro-magnon.

KC Tattoo 02-16-2013 12:53 PM

Not going do any backflips yet the deal is not done. Hopeful very hopeful they get the deal done soon.

crazycoffey 02-16-2013 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoWalrus (Post 9407432)
The OP would say BOWE SIGNED if that were the case, you ****ing cro-magnon.

So easily riffled these days, it was a little unclear. That is all, don't be such a sissy girl. Oh wait.....

Mr. Laz 02-16-2013 12:54 PM

If Bowe would agree to that(5 years, 58m, 20m guar) he would of already been signed to an extension.

The 20 million guaranteed would be the only question the team would have at all.

Chiefs just ran Bowe on a 1-year tag for 9 million ... 11 million per isn't a huge leap


Megatron signed a deal for 8-year, $132 million, 60 guaranteed

Hog Farmer 02-16-2013 01:09 PM

There's just no way we can afford to keep Bowe AND Cassel.

notorious 02-16-2013 01:13 PM

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/1jUBbCgMWmE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

scott free 02-16-2013 01:52 PM

His numbers stack up amazingly well, give the guy a real quarterback and a system that works and his numbers would be right there with Johnson and Marshall.

Rugby Thompson 02-16-2013 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scott free (Post 9407526)
His numbers stack up amazingly well, give the guy a real quarterback and a system that works and his numbers would be right there with Johnson and Marshall.

Sure it would..

the difference between Bowe and those elite receivers is that they don't go to clubs every weekend with Birdman and Lil wayne and smoke weed.

Bowe has motivation problems and want's to be a rapper, he's also a snitch and a selfish player


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