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-   -   Economics Sundown at the Permabear Alamo (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=279637)

KC native 12-17-2013 09:50 AM

Sundown at the Permabear Alamo
 
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/201...rmabear-alamo/
I sure hope the US stock market pauses or corrects soon – because otherwise it’s going to be a complete and total permabear massacre.

China is stabilizing. Europe is growing – peripheral Europe is growing! Japan is percolating. US manufacturing is back above pre-recession levels and household net worth is too. American politicians are introducing bipartisan budget deals. Iran is talking peace. The gold investment complex is collapsing.

None of this was supposed to happen! It was all meant to unravel. WTF?

The pessimists have been absolutely routed this year, it’s becoming uncomfortable to watch. Their intellectual leaders are abandoning the cause or, worse, switching sides. None of their formulas or equations are working, they’re just losing more people more money every month. Those who answer to clients have run out of excuses, they’re now lashing out at everyone else to make themselves feel better.

Because they can’t have been wrong, just early – and it’s not their fault anyhow. It’s the Fed’s fault, or the fault of other financial commentators or the fault of foreign central banks.

But they’re sticking to their “process” – and don’t you ever dare question their process, no matter how poorly it works and for how long.

I am not incorrect for four years running - the entire world is incorrect. You’ll see.

Surely this can’t continue for much longer, can it? I hope not.

May the fates order a ceasefire on the Permabear Alamo, and soon.

I don’t think they can take anymore.

L.A. Chieffan 12-17-2013 10:02 AM

I still work at taco bell

patteeu 12-18-2013 11:24 AM

Iran isn't talking peace. They're accepting our surrender.

HonestChieffan 12-18-2013 10:23 PM

Tacos free for dinner at fixed income forever dot com

jaa1025 12-19-2013 05:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Race Card native (Post 10287076)
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/201...rmabear-alamo/
I sure hope the US stock market pauses or corrects soon – because otherwise it’s going to be a complete and total permabear massacre.

China is stabilizing. Europe is growing – peripheral Europe is growing! Japan is percolating. US manufacturing is back above pre-recession levels and household net worth is too. American politicians are introducing bipartisan budget deals. Iran is talking peace. The gold investment complex is collapsing.

None of this was supposed to happen! It was all meant to unravel. WTF?

The pessimists have been absolutely routed this year, it’s becoming uncomfortable to watch. Their intellectual leaders are abandoning the cause or, worse, switching sides. None of their formulas or equations are working, they’re just losing more people more money every month. Those who answer to clients have run out of excuses, they’re now lashing out at everyone else to make themselves feel better.

Because they can’t have been wrong, just early – and it’s not their fault anyhow. It’s the Fed’s fault, or the fault of other financial commentators or the fault of foreign central banks.

But they’re sticking to their “process” – and don’t you ever dare question their process, no matter how poorly it works and for how long.

I am not incorrect for four years running - the entire world is incorrect. You’ll see.

Surely this can’t continue for much longer, can it? I hope not.

May the fates order a ceasefire on the Permabear Alamo, and soon.

I don’t think they can take anymore.

It's amazing what happens when the left has total control of mainstream media. You get blindfolded from reality. Iran is a serious threat to the stability of the region and is closer to a nuclear bomb than before. Syria is still in the genocide business. North Korea is still a mess. China has become somewhat hostile in international waters. Wallstreet is making themselves money, while 99% of the country are still below what they were before the recession. Health Care costs have soared. We've lost our 1st ammendment unless you are on the left and are acting within party lines. Yeah...things are great...

KC native 12-19-2013 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaa1025 (Post 10292849)
It's amazing what happens when the left has total control of mainstream media. You get blindfolded from reality. Iran is a serious threat to the stability of the region and is closer to a nuclear bomb than before. Syria is still in the genocide business. North Korea is still a mess. China has become somewhat hostile in international waters. Wallstreet is making themselves money, while 99% of the country are still below what they were before the recession. Health Care costs have soared. We've lost our 1st ammendment unless you are on the left and are acting within party lines. Yeah...things are great...

ROFL Josh Brown is not mainstream media.

Stewie 12-19-2013 01:16 PM

We are living in a fool’s paradise. Heads I win, tails you lose. The public is being baffled, hoodwinked and misled at every turn.

I remember my first visit to a dentist as child. He had to drill a cavity in my mouth. I distinctly remember him saying that it wouldn’t hurt, but rather, it would make me laugh. "Try not to laugh too hard", he said. All I recall is that it DID hurt. I felt as if I was lied to and never trusted those people in "whites" again. The fact that this remains in my memory to this day, says it all. Today, I feel the same is happening again.

The Fed announced it is tapering modestly, by $10 billion a month, from $85 billion to $75 billion. A few things catch my eye, beyond the MSM’s blabber about "tapering does NOT mean tightening". If tapering is not tightening, then where is the liquidity coming from?

First of all, think about the amounts we are toying with… BILLIONS, per month! A staggering amount by anyone’s definition. Perhaps we’ve been immunized by the use of TRILLIONS when speaking of yearly accumulated debt. Remember President Carter’s defeat in 1980? I do. One of the main reasons for his defeat was his accumulated deficit in the hundreds of millions. I read about it every day, in every newspaper. That publicity cost him the election (Mind you, by the time President Reagan left office, the term billions were being used to describe our deficit). What’s good for the goose should be good for the gander.

Secondly, the Fed tempered this move with the statement that they will keep interest rates "exceptionally low" until joblessness falls "well below" the new and lower 6.5% threshold set today. Doesn’t this lower threshold practically guaranty increased liquidity? With the $10 billion tapering announced today, I wonder where and how the Fed will supply the liquidity needed to keep rates low? The way they’ve managed to keep rates low, heretofore, is with asset purchases. Perhaps those purchases will be replaced with "helicopter" droppings finally? If so, I’m certain they will be confined to the banking venues of Manhattan. This is definitely a case of double talk.

Which brings to mind today’s 5 year Treasury auction. A disaster! It carried a massive 2.2 tail with a plunge in Directs (read Foreign Central Banks) from 50% to only 25%. How in heaven’s name can the Fed keep bond rates from soaring, without stepping in to pick up the shortfall in demand? They must.

Third, as expected, stocks initially dropped… then suddenly soared almost 300 points on the Dow. Either the market believes the liquidity will continue to flow or the Fed had stepped in to purchase equity securities (a new asset purchase program?).

Let’s recap today……

Dollar higher – indicating tightening moves
Stocks higher – indicating looser policy

Go figure! If it weren’t for one simple thought that permeates every fiber of my soul, I’d be a lost and confused as John Q. Public.

That thought is this: With central banks reducing their exposure to US debt and any subsequent rise in interest rates that would send our Budget into orbit (with higher interest expense on the bonds), there can be no doubt that liquidity will continue to flow in increasing amounts as the Fed must fill the gap in demand for our bonds (buyer of last resort while pumping money into the banking system in doing so). Hence, a massive decline in the dollar. All items being dictated by the laws of nature….not the laws of the MSM.


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