Simmons: Touchback rule could increase kick returns
 

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/spor...urns/82203034/

Paul Dehner Jr., pdehnerjr@enquirer.com 12:31 p.m. EDT March 24, 2016
112215 BENGALS-CARDINALS
(Photo: The Enquirer/Kareem Elgazzar)
Upon hearing the NFL passed a new rule moving touchbacks from the 20-yard-line to the 25 for next season, Bengals special teams coordinator Darrin Simmons couldn’t deny ideas started swirling around his head.

Boasting a kick coverage team that ranked among the best in the NFL in tackles inside the 20 last season, he sees the rule change designed to increase touchbacks in the game could flip the other way.

“My own opinion is I think teams are going to be more likely to try to hang the ball up in the air and not just take the automatic touchback all the time,” Simmons said. “I think it’s going to be reverse, I think it’s going to be more returns.”

Last year, in drives following kickoffs the average drive start of Bengals’ opponents was the 20-yard line. Only the Buffalo Bills (19) held a better average. No team in the league saw a drive start beyond the 25-yard line, where touchbacks would be placed next year.

Simmons’ line of thought wonders, why concede a differential of five yards?

“It’s the level of comfort you have with your kickoff team,” he said. “If you feel like they can cover why would you not want to put them inside the 20?”

Mike Nugent and the Bengals ranked 25th in the NFL in touchback percentage last year with kickoffs brought out of the end zone 48 percent of the time. Meanwhile, kickers with strong legs like Baltimore’s Justin Tucker and Indianapolis’ Pat McAfee will likely keep their same strategy of kicking it deep and completely take the return out of the game for their opponent. Both forced touchbacks more than 85 percent of last season.

For the Bengals, it could mean a weapon like Adam Jones rendered useless on kickoff returns. He was essentially given the green light to bring out any kick that didn't sail out of bounds. Now, Simmons says the team will probably have to move up the line of demarcation.

Most teams taking that approach enhances the reason to go for the touchback for McAfee. He tweeted this after hearing the ruling: “Only a 1% better chance of scoring from 25 than from 20. From a strategy point. Imma bat a 1000 on touchbacks this year.”

Those numbers will be under a microscope as teams decide their strategy moving forward.

Since 2012, drives that start at the 25 result in a 33.2 percent chance of a score. Over the same span, drives that start at the 20 have a 29.5 percent chance of resulting in a score. There’s a nearly three-percent uptick in touchdowns alone.

Those numbers also reveal a 3.5-percent difference in punts between the two starting points.

“You’ll have to go with what your kicker does best,” Simmons said. “Teams like Baltimore or Indianapolis that have such a high touchback rate, especially somebody like Indianapolis, they might never have a ball returned on them, especially in Indy.”

When the kickoff moved from the 30 to 35 in 2011, many kickers adopted a more aggressive, low trajectory aimed specifically at kicking out of the end zone. Simmons sees this change bringing back an older style of high hangtime kicks that land around the goal line in order to force a decision for the returner. The practice of landing in a precise spot doesn’t come easy, but with an offseason of specific practice expect to see more of it.

“Still think it’s pretty hard to do, it requires so much touch,” Simmons said. “These kickers go after the ball and attack it so hard. It’s really changed. They will probably revert back to something close to what it was before where those directional kickers can get good hang time, maybe that’s the kick you go with. I think it’s a wait-and-see thing but I certainly think it’s going to be interesting to see what people do.”

Well this would seem to make Colquitt more valuable, no?

I presume it applies to punts as well as kicks. Suddenly a premier directional punter is even a little more useful.

Thank God Simmons cleared that up for us

So the nfl is committed to reducing concussions by....... increasing kickoffs? Brilliant?

They THINK this move will decrease kickoff returns since very few will ever try to run it out of the end zone. This guy makes an interesting point about how the kicking team's strategy might change, but I kind of doubt he'll be right. Kickers aren't that good.

I took it as the kicking team would kick it high and short of the ez thinking they have a higher probability of covering the kick or return. Its what id do.

Simmons and Mike and Mike are stupid. They think that giving a team more yards for free will increase them bringing out the ball from the end zone? That makes zero sense and would totally depend on what team it is. If your the coach and your ST's suck then I doubt you are just going to gamble much when they are giving you the 25 yard line for nothing. I doubt 5 yards is enough for teams to try an hang the ball high to avoid touch backs and go for the pin'em deep strategy. They don't do that with the 20 but the 25 changes everything? I doubt it.

The stats are more likely to go down than up.

Why not? They already have a short field. You hang that high and Id think your odds of pinning a team within 20 yards is high.

Well five yards is huge. There are a couple coaches that will tread the line on what is legal in this regards. There is just a minimum I am reading for tees, What is to stop you from having a place holder every time for kickoff? Get a ****er with a 14-16" shoe to hold off his foot, Have that ball up high and have someone like Colquit blast it in the air down to the 10.. It would take a year for the rules to be changed.

Sure, but you really think a kicker kicking off of a tee is going to have anywhere near that level of control? I sure don't. Punters have a huge advantage in being able to hang it up in the air because of the way the ball is kicked.

If they try to get too precise with it, they're either gonna short it and give up a big run back or just kick it into the EZ anyway.

Time will tell, though.

Then why was this not done already? More that half the teams have crappy ST's so they like touch backs not to mention injuries occur on ST's a lot.

Teams will probably shy away from bringing the ball out like always if not more. Since we have Toub we are not one of them but at least 20 teams really don't have ST's that are good.

Last year it seemed Seabass and the Raiders strategically were already doing that in several games. He would sort of squib/pooch kick so the returner would field it inside the 5 yard line forcing the returner to run. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didnt..

Darrin Simmons has just be notified of his promotion to Major Obvious.

I think eventually they'll completely go away from having Kickoffs.....Just place the ball on the 20 after the score and play ball. That's where it's heading.

At this point, I'd almost be fine with that if that's where we're gonna end up. Not sure how you handle onside kicks, though.