ChiefsPlanet - Chiefs GMs Chris Ballard and Dorsey believe there are only 15 first round talents

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GMs Chris Ballard and Dorsey believe there are only 15 first round talents (https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=322300)

GMs Chris Ballard and Dorsey believe there are only 15 first round talents

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This is just the opinion of one GM but I thought it might be interesting to all in regards to mock drafts.

Ballard: “All of these mock drafts are wrong” Reporter: “Aren’t they always?” Ballard: “Yea but this year they’re really wrong.”

Ballard explains that he sees 14 players in this draft who are blue chip, elite level players. From 15 through the top of the third, “the talent level is consistent.”

The takeaway here is Ballard is saying that the back half of the first and the second round are going to be very different than what people think. What that means for mock drafters is don’t be afraid to put guys higher than the crowd thinks because you might be right. A lot of these solidified late 1st guys won’t go that high, according to him.

Secondly

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In breaking down the trade on the Move the Sticks podcast with Bucky Brooks (filling in for Daniel Jeremiah), NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein dropped the knowledge nugget. “I had heard that the Browns considered there to be 15 players that are first round players in this year’s draft,” Zierlein explained. “That sounds about right. About 15 guys who are first round picks. Analytics is always about quantifying value so, for them, that 17th pick, they considered that a second round player, generally speaking. In the Browns’ mind, they considered they were giving up a second-round player and not a first round player. That makes even more sense right now,”

So in response who do you believe are the 15 elite level players in this draft?

Guys say that every year. Hell, Mark Schlereth once said there are only six in any draft and every guy from then through the third is about the same.

That basically means if there is a trade up, it's to get one of the last elite players that could be falling. Or you trade down, gain more picks where the talent level is pretty consistent.

I’d argue that’s it’s this way most years.

At least half of the 1st rounders bust or disappoint every year.

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Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 14203770)

Guys say that every year. Hell, Mark Schlereth once said there are only six in any draft and every guy from then through the third is about the same.

While true, I trust what these guys say more than I do Schlereth who has no ****ing clue.

My best guess?

1. Quinnen Williams, DT
2. Nick Bosa, EDGE
3. Josh Allen, EDGE
4. Devin White, LB
5. Ed Oliver, DT
6. T.J. Hockensen, TE
7. Montez Sweat, EDGE
8. Clelin Ferrell, DE
9. Kyler Murray, QB
10. Greedy Williams, CB
11. Noah Fant, TE
12. Brian Burns, EDGE
13. Andre Dillard, OT
14. Garrett Bradbury, OC
15. Devin Bush, LB

Not necessarily in that order.

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Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 14203770)

Guys say that every year. Hell, Mark Schlereth once said there are only six in any draft and every guy from then through the third is about the same.

Yeah this.

Same as it ever was. I could realistically see us trading back like we did when we selected Chris Jones. An extra pick could go along way on stocking a team.

I would tend to trade a late 1st round pick for a 2nd and 4th. If you get enough draft picks, you'll find good enough players to fill out position group. We have to build a solid D, and keep a solid OL in front of Patrick.

If we do that, we'll have 12-15 years to take cracks at getting SB rings.

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Originally Posted by kcclone (Post 14203785)

http://www.birdsonggregory.com/wordp...ing_agency.jpg

Well that was easy! Get this guy in the front office immediately.

I don't see how kylr murray isn't just an abortion of epic levels

I definitely don’t see Veach sticking at 29.

I think he probably goes up to the teens, but if not, goes down to R2.

I agree that the talent level of the bottom half of the first and guys that will go in the second is pretty much the same. I would absolutely trade #29 to pick up another 2nd or perhaps even a 3rd in some multi-pick swap.

And even in that top 15, there are guys whose tape doesn't match their combine numbers. I'm always really leery of those types of guys. Why wasn't Sweat more dominant with those measurables? Just an example.

I'll bet either way, Veach won't stand pat-but remember it's just as aggressive to try to stockpile early picks as it is to move up.

Other than Ferrell, I don't think anyone in the mid first would be worth it, meaning there are two or three other comparable players that would still be there standing pat or perhaps even into the 2nd.

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Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 14203916)

Other than Ferrell, I don't think anyone in the mid first would be worth it, meaning there are two or three other comparable players that would still be there standing pat or perhaps even into the 2nd.

I’d probably add Devin Bush and Byron Murphy if they’re available. I think they can be day one difference makers.

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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 (Post 14203899)

I definitely don’t see Veach sticking at 29.

I think he probably goes up to the teens, but if not, goes down to R2.

Heard some buzz that the Jets are desperate to trade down and the Falcons/Lions are interested in doing so as well.

#3 and #8 are pretty unrealistic but #14? At that spot we'd be in perfect range to get the guy we want.