Mock (6/26)
 

Assumptions:

1. The Chiefs do very well in the 2024 season. HC Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach are retained.

2. The Chiefs re-work QB Patrick Mahomes contract, partially extending him and lowering his cap number from his currently-gargantuan $66.2m cap hit.

3. The Chiefs re-sign: C Creed Humphrey, 5 years, $75m; $LB Nick Bolton 4 years, $68m; CB Nazeeh Johnson 1 year, $5m; K Harrison Butker 4 years, $24m

4. The Chiefs re-sign to minimal deals: QB Carson Wentz, WR Justin Watson, DT Tershawn Wharton, S Deon Bush, P Matt Araiza

5. The Chiefs tender the following RFAs: DE Malik Herring, LB Jack Cochrane, OG/C Mike Caliendo, CB Keith Taylor, S Trey Dean

6. The Chiefs let walk: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Marquise Brown, WR Kadarius Toney, WR Mecole Hardman, TE Noah Gray, TE Irv Smith, OT Lucas Niang, OG Trey Smith, DT Mike Pennel, DT Derrick Nnadi, DT Matt Dickerson, DE Charles Omenihu, CB Ekow Boye-Doe, S Justin Reid, LS James Winchester

7. The Chiefs sign the following free agents: RB Nyheim Hines (Browns), TE Tre McKitty (Bills), DT B.J. Hill (Bengals), DE Carlos Basham, Jr. (Giants)

8. The Draft:

1. DE Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State
2. WR Antwane Wells, Jr., Ole Miss
3 (Sneed). TE Mitchell Evans, Notre Dame
3. RB Donovan Edwards, Michigan
4. DT T.J. Sanders, South Carolina
5. OG Miles Frazier, LSU
7 (Smith-Marsette pick swap). LB Jack Kiser, Notre Dame
7 (Hardman pick swap). RB Damien Martinez, Miami

The roster:

QB: Mahomes, Wentz
RB: Pacheco, Edwards, Hines, Martinez

WR: Rice, Wells, Worthy, Remigio, Watson, Moore
TE: Kelce, Wylie, Evans, McKitty

LT: Suamataia, Morris
LG: Thuney, Frazier
C: Humphrey, Hansen
RG: Nourzad, Caliendo
RT: Taylor, Morris

DE: Danna, Anudike-Uzomah, Herring
DT: Jones, Wharton, Sanders
DT: Hill, Lovett
DE: Karlaftis, Dennis-Sutton, Basham

WLB: Tranquill, Jones, Kiser
MLB: Bolton, Tranquill, Cochrane
SLB: Chenal, Cochrane

CB: McDuffie, Williams, Johnson, Watson, Jones, Taylor
S: Cook, Hadden, Conner, Dean, Bush

K: Butker
P: Araiza
LS: some guy

I am continually reminded of the Eli Manning era Giants who kept investing 1st round picks at DL and 2nd round picks at WR. The Chiefs have been doing a version of that for a while, and I keep that going here. I am currently banking, admittedly prematurely, that FAU still has a ways to go. This arrangement gives the Chiefs an extremely promising foursome of guys who can play inside and out, with insurance policies in Herring and Basham.

The two positions this team is absolutely bare at are RB and DT. I've spent a combined three draft picks at those positions, brought back Wharton, made a minor investment in Hines, and am currently banking that Fabian Lovett is going to ball out. I really like a one- or two-year investment in BJ Hill, as the Bengals are about to be strapped for cap space and are unlikely to bring him back to stuff their middle.

I elect to let Trey Smith walk, and bring Humphrey back. You can re-set the market with Creed, and if you lock him up for 5 years you can manipulate his number. I am assuming, admittedly prematurely, that Kingsley plays well at LT.

I love where this team sits on the back seven, so long as Bolton is brought back. I am assuming, admittedly prematurely, that Nazeeh Johnson balls out this year, and the Chiefs elect to bring him back in 2025 on a quick prove-it deal.

What breaks my back a bit here is that Justin Reid and Hollywood Brown are walking. I bet that Reid has been a massive reason why a bunch of the young talent developed so quickly, and his value on kickoffs will speak for itself, I bet. I also think Brown is about to have a 1,200-yard year at WR, but between bringing back Humphrey and Bolton, along with ballooning contracts for Thuney and Jones, there's just not much soup left to serve.

I am currently not assuming that Louis Rees-Zammit makes the team this year.

Of the departing players:

Hollywood gets paid by the next team
Smith gets paid by the next team
Omenihu gets paid by the next team
Reid gets paid by the next team

The Chiefs only added one contract of note this hypothetical offseason in BJ Hill, so I'd bet on the Chiefs raking in three compensatory picks in 2026.

Oh, and I neglected to add two compensatory 7th rounders. I'll add those next time.

I just can't get behind giving Bolton $17 million/season.

Maybe it won't matter. Maybe the Spags love affair with him will carry the day. But we're getting our asses kicked in that deal, IMO.

I pull the chute at around $12 million with Bolton. 4 years, $50 million with $36 million in effective guarantees. He's not gonna swoon over that offer and it's not gonna get done early or easily.

But I could really see a scenario where the market just doesn't come together for him like he hopes it will. He's simply not a $15+ million player.

Damn, Bolton going to be expensive.

The safety market hasn't come together for anyone, so you might be able to keep Reid on a nice deal.

I'd pay and keep Hollywood if he has a big year over Bolton.

That wouldn't be a good look in year 3 if FAU is still a backup behind a journeyman like Danna

I guess it depends on how his special teams run goes but I think we’re positioned to move on from him.

If he's around, I certainly have my eyes on WR Elic Ayomanor, Stanford. Like more than Wells.

Another 1st round DE would have me kind of meh

QB
OT
WR
Pass rusher
Corner

Think those are the 5 high value positions we put at the top in the draft. Obviously we have QB, we just drafted WR and LT early a couple months ago and we have an all pro at corner with what seems like a good group.

Even if Felix is really good this year I’d still consider drafting a DE, especially if they can work inside. Would prefer an interior pass rusher to eventually replace Jones but those guys aren’t around often.

Largely dependent in my eyes on how Felix progresses and how the DBs perform. Will Conner or Johnson man Sneed's spot or will McDuffie have to slide over there? If that, then how does the 3rd CB perform? Also, if we're going to be that forward looking at DE, then we probably should keep RT a consideration depending on how Taylor performs. You might want to plug a guy in at RG for a year that can slide out after 2025. I'm also not yet losing sight of WR as a need yet again depending on how the Rice situation shakes out and whether or not he matures, plus Hollywood, Watson, and Toney will be free agents.

You're gonna have to pay Karlaftis pretty soon so might be smart to get ahead of that.

Pay him. For a guy always wanting to trade for everyone else's pass rushers, I'd expect you to be first in line to say we should keep a good one when we have one.

I'm fine with it, but he's gonna be a 28-30 million dollar per year guy with 75 million guaranteed.