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-   -   Expect another "TERROR ALERT!" (http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=98799)

Frankie 09-16-2004 06:14 PM

Expect another "TERROR ALERT!"
 
Has anybody else noticed there has been no Terror Alert during the mythical Bush bounce?! Well, you can expect one anyday now!


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...ign_polls_dc_3

Two New Polls Show Deadlocked White House Race

1 hour, 38 minutes ago

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two national polls on Thursday showed the race between President Bush (news - web sites) and Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites) deadlocked as Bush's convention bounce faded, although the president has made headway in key swing states.

In polls certain to buoy the spirits of anxious Democrats, the Pew Research Center and Harris Interactive found equal levels of support for the White House contenders as Kerry rebounded from the withering attacks he faced at the Republican convention that ended on Sept. 2.

The new surveys followed two other polls in recent days, by Investor's Business Daily and a Democratic group, Democracy Corps, that found the race essentially even again, just as it was for months before the two parties held their nominating conventions.

"Some of the negative attacks against Kerry are wearing off and he has stayed in the game because people are discontent with Bush on Iraq (news - web sites) and the economy," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for People and the Press.

"Unfortunately for Kerry, he's been unable to tap into that unhappiness, especially on Iraq," Kohut said, noting Bush still beats Kerry 52-40 percent on who was favored to lead the war in Iraq. "It's a mixed picture for Kerry, but that's better than what he had a few days ago."

Several other recent polls have shown Bush, who bounced to a double-digit lead in two polls after the Republican convention, holding a four- to seven-point lead over Kerry.

A flurry of new state polls, meanwhile, showed Bush moving ahead in key states like Florida and Nevada and challenging Kerry in Democratic strongholds like New Jersey.


VOTERS UNSETTLED

"We went through a period for months where there was no air between these candidates in the polls ... and now it's the opposite," Kohut said. "I think it shows the voters are unsettled, their thoughts about Kerry are unsettled and they are going back and forth."

A new National Annenberg Election Survey earlier this week found Bush gaining ground as a leader and in the war on terror, but his approval ratings among undecided and "persuadable" voters dropped below levels from before the convention.

Kerry has sharpened his message and gone on the offensive against Bush this week on Iraq and the economy, challenging the president's credibility and his leadership on both issues.

The new focus came as he faced a chorus of complaints from fellow Democrats about his failure to develop a coherent message and respond quickly to attacks on his record in Vietnam.

"I feel very comfortable with where we are," Democratic Party boss Terry McAuliffe said. "As it relates to the battleground states, I think we're in a very good position."

Bush campaign spokesman Scott Stanzel said the campaign always expected a close race and nothing has changed.

"We've seen polls over the past week that show the president ahead, some well ahead and some slightly ahead, or tied," he said. "What we are planning for is a close election, potentially as close as 2000."

The Pew survey sampled voters in two waves. The first poll of likely voters, taken Sept. 8-10, found Bush ahead by 16 percentage points. The second poll on Sept. 11-14, which had a 3.5 percentage point margin of error, found Bush with a statistically insignificant one-point lead. Among registered voters, it was deadlocked.

The Harris poll, which was conducted Sept. 9-13 and had a 3 point margin of error, found Kerry with a one-point lead. A Harris poll in June gave Bush a 10 percentage point lead.

Mr. Kotter 09-16-2004 06:31 PM

Hmmmmm.....Clinton didn't do anything like that.....why, just prior to HIS re-election in 1996--bombing those "terrorist camps" that he had ignored for so long.....I'm SURE it didn't have anything to do with the "timing" during the campaign though....nah, never. :rolleyes:

The advantage of incumbancy, eh? :p

alnorth 09-16-2004 06:51 PM

What we have here is a basic serious flaw in the polls.

Some polls just contact their likely voter sample, and adjust for demographics (race, gender, etc) before posting results.

Some polls contact likely voters, then look at the parties. If there are too many Republicans, they count that as a demographic, adjust, and post.

The polls that say "Republican" is a demographic show a tight race. The polls that believe that people could change parties and therefore do not adjust for party affiliation are showing a large Bush lead, coasting to an easy landslide victory.

Which is correct? We have no clue, because this has never happened to this degree before. In elections past, the parties in the poll closely matched the ratio that voted last election. However, this year we are getting a ton of Republicans answering the phone, so some polls are treating that as an error to adjust down to a tight race.

The basic question is: is the republican sample an error, or have people actually shifted Republican? We wont know till the exit polls come out. After that, hopefully polls will be more accurate in '08

KCWolfman 09-16-2004 07:01 PM

Conspiracy theorists are funny.


Nevermind that multiple worldwide arrests were made during the last alert - facts and details are the devil's advocate when it comes to wacko premises.

KCWolfman 09-16-2004 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SDChiefsfan
Hmmmmm.....Clinton didn't do anything like that.....why, just prior to HIS re-election in 1996--bombing those "terrorist camps" that he had ignored for so long.....I'm SURE it didn't have anything to do with the "timing" during the campaign though....nah, never. :rolleyes:

The advantage of incumbancy, eh? :p

You forgot about the evil aspirin factory he bombed during his impeachment.

Mr. Kotter 09-16-2004 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCWolfman
You forgot about the evil aspirin factory he bombed during his impeachment.

Silly, us....Russ. Questioning the integrity of the unassailable and honorable William Jefferson Clinton, when it should be clear that it is only GWB and GWHB and Reagan who are dastardly enough to inject "politics" into their decision-making.

SHAME on us. Shame, shame. :shake:

KCWolfman 09-16-2004 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SDChiefsfan
Silly, us....Russ. Questioning the integrity of the unassailable and honorable William Jefferson Clinton, when it should be clear that it is only GWB and GWHB and Reagan who are dastardly enough to inject "politics" into their decision-making.

SHAME on us. Shame, shame. :shake:

At least GWB doesn't kill innocent people making medicine

RINGLEADER 09-16-2004 07:38 PM

Rasmussen finallys breaks Bush over 50% (today)

Gallup has Bush up 14% (coming tomorrow)

Time continues to have Bush up double-digits.

The Pew poll actually has Bush up, but then they divided their poll so they could pick out a couple days where it was closer.

The Harris Interactive poll shows Kerry up though.

I guess being up in one poll is better than being up in no polls.

Thig Lyfe 09-16-2004 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frankie
Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Interesting.

MadMax 09-16-2004 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frankie
Has anybody else noticed there has been no Terror Alert during the mythical Bush bounce?! Well, you can expect one anyday now!


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...ign_polls_dc_3

Two New Polls Show Deadlocked White House Race

1 hour, 38 minutes ago

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two national polls on Thursday showed the race between President Bush (news - web sites) and Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites) deadlocked as Bush's convention bounce faded, although the president has made headway in key swing states.

In polls certain to buoy the spirits of anxious Democrats, the Pew Research Center and Harris Interactive found equal levels of support for the White House contenders as Kerry rebounded from the withering attacks he faced at the Republican convention that ended on Sept. 2.

The new surveys followed two other polls in recent days, by Investor's Business Daily and a Democratic group, Democracy Corps, that found the race essentially even again, just as it was for months before the two parties held their nominating conventions.

"Some of the negative attacks against Kerry are wearing off and he has stayed in the game because people are discontent with Bush on Iraq (news - web sites) and the economy," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for People and the Press.

"Unfortunately for Kerry, he's been unable to tap into that unhappiness, especially on Iraq," Kohut said, noting Bush still beats Kerry 52-40 percent on who was favored to lead the war in Iraq. "It's a mixed picture for Kerry, but that's better than what he had a few days ago."

Several other recent polls have shown Bush, who bounced to a double-digit lead in two polls after the Republican convention, holding a four- to seven-point lead over Kerry.

A flurry of new state polls, meanwhile, showed Bush moving ahead in key states like Florida and Nevada and challenging Kerry in Democratic strongholds like New Jersey.


VOTERS UNSETTLED

"We went through a period for months where there was no air between these candidates in the polls ... and now it's the opposite," Kohut said. "I think it shows the voters are unsettled, their thoughts about Kerry are unsettled and they are going back and forth."

A new National Annenberg Election Survey earlier this week found Bush gaining ground as a leader and in the war on terror, but his approval ratings among undecided and "persuadable" voters dropped below levels from before the convention.

Kerry has sharpened his message and gone on the offensive against Bush this week on Iraq and the economy, challenging the president's credibility and his leadership on both issues.

The new focus came as he faced a chorus of complaints from fellow Democrats about his failure to develop a coherent message and respond quickly to attacks on his record in Vietnam.

"I feel very comfortable with where we are," Democratic Party boss Terry McAuliffe said. "As it relates to the battleground states, I think we're in a very good position."

Bush campaign spokesman Scott Stanzel said the campaign always expected a close race and nothing has changed.

"We've seen polls over the past week that show the president ahead, some well ahead and some slightly ahead, or tied," he said. "What we are planning for is a close election, potentially as close as 2000."

The Pew survey sampled voters in two waves. The first poll of likely voters, taken Sept. 8-10, found Bush ahead by 16 percentage points. The second poll on Sept. 11-14, which had a 3.5 percentage point margin of error, found Bush with a statistically insignificant one-point lead. Among registered voters, it was deadlocked.

The Harris poll, which was conducted Sept. 9-13 and had a 3 point margin of error, found Kerry with a one-point lead. A Harris poll in June gave Bush a 10 percentage point lead.



The "ONLY" pole sKerry leads in is The John Edwards pole!!!! LOL :p :p :thumb:

SBK 09-17-2004 12:53 AM

Originally Posted by Frankie
Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

You heard that too huh?

Thig Lyfe 09-17-2004 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shortbuskid
Originally Posted by Frankie
Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

You heard that too huh?

Yes.

Now get off my bus. :thumb:

Cochise 09-17-2004 05:54 AM

What a tard.

Frankie 09-17-2004 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCWolfman
At least GWB doesn't kill innocent people making medicine

We have a BIIIIG disagreement there KCW. I call our troups and thousands of Iraqis (not all mind you) as "INNOCENT" victims of Bush's personal and manufactured war. :shrug: A lot of those troups signed as a result of 9/11 because they thought they would fight against the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden. Now they are dying in Iraq for some companies that are in bed with Bush and Cheney. :rolleyes:

Radar Chief 09-17-2004 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frankie
We have a BIIIIG disagreement there KCW. I call our troups and thousands of Iraqis (not all mind you) as "INNOCENT" victims of Bush's personal and manufactured war. :shrug: A lot of those troups signed as a result of 9/11 because they thought they would fight against the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden. Now they are dying in Iraq for some companies that are in bed with Bush and Cheney. :rolleyes:

Is that why recruitment numbers are still up?


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