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Old 10-02-2013, 04:41 PM   #27
Cave Johnson Cave Johnson is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante84 View Post
What do you guys think about trading Bowe for Chris Johnson?

The other guy has Alex Smith.... and I'm thinking I could get Chris right before he blows up due to lack of QB play.
I'd do it. CJ0K blows.

Quote:
While some might be encouraged by Johnson's decent yardage totals, there should be concern about how many carries it took to obtain that yardage. Specifically, Johnson had exactly 25 carries in both Weeks 1 and 2. That's a mark he achieved only once in each of the past two seasons. Considering that Johnson played in many contests where his normal starting quarterback was sidelined due to injury during those seasons, expecting an increase due to Jake Locker's hip injury is not advisable.

If Johnson's downside ended there, he'd still maintain decent value. It doesn't. Johnson isn't nearly as explosive as he was in the early part of his career. As most remember, Johnson's value has been driven significantly by his ability to break long runs frequently. In 2008 and 2009, Johnson broke a big-play rush (10 yards or more) once every 7.2 carries. That number plummeted to one every 9.3 carries for the 2010 to 2012 seasons. It has plunged further to just once every 14 carries this year. This season's rate is 24 percent worse than the combined rate for all other running backs with at least 50 carries this year. Any way you look at it, he's just not explosive anymore.

Finally, Johnson has zero touchdowns this season despite the fact that he has had 17 of the 24 red zone rushes the Tennessee Titans have attempted this season. Those 17 rush attempts represent the largest number of red zone chances given to any running back this season. Furthermore, every other running back with double-digit opportunities in the red zone has at least one touchdown.

To recap: Johnson is receiving more carries than he has usually been given. He is significantly less explosive than his reputation suggests, and he is a colossal flop in the red zone. If you own Johnson, now is the time to pawn him off to another owner. If you don't, avoid being the fish that gets hooked on this bait.
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