[Saul Good]

Vegas lines are rarely "right". They are simply good at missing each direction an equal number of times over the long run. Computers are the same way. If you take everything in aggregate, they tend to be correct. In the short term, they are extremely unreliable because they are susceptible to outliers (Washington, Arizona State, etc.).

Relying on them to be accurate on an individual basis is about as smart as flipping a coin ten times and, when it comes up heads seven times, declaring that heads is definitively a more likely outcome in coin flips.

Computer models sacrifice accuracy for precision. Even in the long term (especially in the long term), this is true. If it weren't true, the computers would agree with one another.