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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Warner: Lightning strike (not quite as big as Brady, as Brady is in the running for best ever, while Warner was merely very good-great for a little less than a decade).

Moon: Racism at play.

Overall, there are FAR more successful QBs who have been first-round picks than successful QBs selected/acquired any other way.

The odds still aren't great or better than 50 percent (why you have the Akili Smiths and David Klinglers and etc), but it gives you your best odds of finding a franchise guy and best odds of winning a Super Bowl.

A look at the winning QBs in recent Super Bowl history (past 20 years):

Flacco
Eli Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees (1st pick of Round 2)
Roethlisberger
Eli Manning
Peyton Manning
Roethlisberger
Brady
Brady
Brad Johnson
Brady
Trent Dilfer
Warner
Elway
Elway
Favre (early second round pick, 33rd overall)
Aikman
Young (weird exception, in that he signed huge deal with USFL out of college. He was the first pick in the USFL expansion draft in 1985 and likely would have been in consideration for first overall in the 1984 draft).

That's 5 (6 if you want to count Young) exceptions in 20 years. With two of those being early 2nd round picks.

Odds slide overwhelmingly towards having a 1st round QB.

So I guess Reid should just ignore what he's seen at practice and cut Bray's ass because the CP experts say there's no chance.