Originally Posted by alnorth
Its not really the case that the country is split down the middle, willing to give both sides a fair hearing, and makes up their mind based on the issues, debates, etc. In 2016, the Democrat isn't going to need to do much other than avoid huge mistakes.
We used to be tilted to the right where a Democrat could win, but the default state of the race before candidates were picked was that the Republicans had a big advantage. Clinton had to win some southern states and get some 3rd party help to get to his slim plurality. Then we really were more or less 50/50 for a while when Bush and Gore fought it out..
Its hasn't been that way since W was in office. By the time we get to 2016, it'll be the reverse of what it was like when Reagan won: A Republican could win, but the default state of the race before candidates are picked is that the Democrat is going to have a big advantage, because there are now a whole lot of people who would blindly vote for a turnip over any Republican.
I think you'll find that turnout is going to be a big problem for the Democrats in 2016. I could be wrong, but the way I see it, they're going to have to worry about their own left.