Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
He's probably all about the ZIPS projections (which are awful, IMO).
Whatever formula ZIPS is using makes no sense to me. It's extremely conservative and particularly hard on young players.
I mean, it predicts Mike Trout - a guy who has hit .326 and .323 in the major leagues - to be a .302 hitter this year. Just silly.
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There are some legit reasons to think we might lose even without injuries (Guthrie's ability to get outs with RISP may have just been blind luck in 2013, who knows with Vargas, maybe none of our young hitters improve), but to me thats at the 10-15% point of the probability distribution. To actually predict 79 wins seems kinda bold. We did get rid of Getz and Frenchy, and our #5 spot won't feature Mendoza, come on, thats got to be worth whatever number of wins he may be dinging us for having the AL's best ERA last year.