Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
Our defense last year was incredible, as measured by objective statistics. It contributed about 5-6 extra wins, so if we had a league average defense, we would have struggled to get over .500.
Projections (like PECOTA) can not project defense, so they basically assume everyone's defense is average and project batting and pitching. That is usually fine for most teams, but if you think your team's defense will be either horrid or elite, then the projections might be off.
Our defense had better be elite again in 2014, because even if our offense takes a big step forward like we hope, it won't matter if our defense regresses to merely average, because our starting pitchers won't blow teams away.
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PECOTA (and other projection systems, but especially PECOTA) is also terrible at projecting young players' progression. Part of that is because young guys are so unpredictable. Another part of that is because most projection systems assume some regression as part of their formula. It may make sense mathematically, on paper, but it doesn't make a ton of sense to project a young hitter who has had some success to regress at ages 26-30. Not in real life.
A guy like Hosmer, who was very good as a rookie, bad as a sophomore, meh for two months and then awesome for 4 months in year 3, is very hard to project accurately.
PECOTA, for example, has Eric Hosmer projected at:
.276/17 HR/75 R/77 RBI/.334 OBP/.423 SLG
From June 1, 2013 - when he really seemed to have worked through his growing pains - Hosmer was: .318/.367/.494 with 16 HR and 63 RBI.
Human projection systems see Hosmer as more like .300/.350/.475 with 20-25 HR and 90-100 RBI.
Just one example of where PECOTA is inadequate.