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Old 02-26-2014, 07:46 PM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Its easy to write editorials, talk about anecdotes, and take a few polls. There's an awful lot of cheerleading on the right, thats for sure. But the Demographics are quite clear: Mitt Romney won the independents and the Republican turnout was great, but he lost the election because there were simply too many Democrats.
I don't agree with this at all, and neither does the data...


2000:
Bush - 50,456,002
Gore - 50,999,897

2004:
Bush - 62,040,610
Kerry - 59,028,444

2008:
Obama - 69,498,516
McCain - 59,948,323

2009:
Obama - 65,915,796
Romney - 60,933,500

Both McCain and Romney's numbers are better than both Gore's and Kerry's. Barack Obama's numbers are inflated because he's Barack Obama. Those aren't Democrats. Those are Kotters.

And saying that if the Democrat base turns out, they win - this is not remarkable. This is the normal challenge for both parties. Likewise, if the Republicans turn out conservatives and libertarians, and do what Reagan (and Frankly GWB) did by drawing conservative Democrats to the Republicans, they win. This is the name of the game.

Who is going to carry Obama's numbers on the left? Not Clinton - don't believe the hype. She's going to be bloodied by her own left flank, and then she's going to be bloodied by the right. She's old news - and she might not even run. Biden? Biden isn't going to break over 60k in votes - are you kidding me? Kerry shows where Biden's ceiling is. I do have a caveat - and that's Harold Ford, Jr. I have not heard anything about him wanting to run, but if he did, I believe he has potential to draw like Obama.

Aside from that, the narrative that the Democrats are a shoe-in to win the presidency in 2016 is hardly valid. This is going to be a contest. We're looking at another election like 2000 where it will be neck and neck. Aside from what is happening now, there is going to be plenty that happens between now and 2016 that gives this country much to reflect on.
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