Eric Ebron might not go as high as people are projecting. People keep comparing him to Vernon Davis but he is nowhere near the physical monster that Davis was.
Vernon Davis ran a 4.38 40 yard dash at the combine while weighing in at 263 pounds of, what looked like, pure muscle. He jumped through the roof with a 40" vertical.
Eric Ebron ran a 4.60 40 yard dash at the combine while weighing in at 250 pounds. He only jumped 32".
That is a world of difference in speed and explosion between the two and it's why Vernon Davis was a top 10 pick and why Ebron won't be. That draft was considered weak in offensive receiving threats at the top.
Take last year for instance, when big pass catching TEs were all the rage, Tyler Eifert was a great prospect coming out of Notre Dame; he was pretty close to Ebron in speed/explosiveness but easily had better and more consistent hands and was a more polished receiving TE overall. Tons of people had him going in the top 15 and Eifert didn't get picked until the 21st pick in the draft. Eifert didn't have much impact for the Bengals as a rookie (mostly because they didn't know how to use him well and he didn't get very many snaps due to Gresham being on the field).
To top it off, this year's WR class is significantly stronger than last year's but there are still only a few potential #1 candidates to be had. WR needy teams that are likely to take a receiver in the 1st will opt to go with a WR because they'll be able to fill the TE role in the 2nd and 3rd rounds with solid prospects. A #1 WR will always be valued over a good TE when it comes down to it.
12. Giants - They are losing Nicks, who was previously considered their #1 WR. But they could go OL as well or revamp their DL.
13. Rams - With their 2nd 1st round pick, even though they already took Austin too high last year, they still need a #1 threat. Rams could opt for one of the top safeties at this spot over a WR.
15. Steelers - Though I'll argue that they need more defensive and OL help than they do WR. They could still opt to take a #1 target for Big Ben here but they truly need to revamp their defense and get back to their old ways.
18. Jets - Need lots of offensive help. They'll take the best remaining #1 WR here and hope for a receiving TE later in the draft.
21. Green Bay - They could use a good TE with Finley's injury but they need defensive help a whole lot more than they do offense.
If Ebron were a more consistent pass catcher he would likely be a top 20 pick in this draft, no question about that. However, this draft is too strong for Ebron, who has highly inconsistent hands and isn't dominant and consistent at high pointing the ball, to go in the top 20, IMO. It's probable that he may be there for our pick at 23.
FTR: Ebron had a 11.43% drop percentage. That's terrible for someone who is being lauded as the next great TE.