Quote:
Originally Posted by noa
Fangraphs has our pitching staff ranked 17th and obviously has concerns about Vargas/Guthrie/Chen. They would think more highly of us if we replaced Chen with Duffy.
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Which will happen by midseason and maybe even in June.
Fangraphs actually has KC 19th. There's all sorts of ridiculousness going on in their pitching staff rankings.
Rankings that stand out as particularly bad:
Red Sox 2nd.
Yankees 4th (above, notably, the Nats, Cardinals and Dodgers, among others).
Rockies 9th (above the Rays)
Giants 14th
I like stats a ton. But stuff like this from Fangraphs is why so many in baseball laugh at stat heads. Those rankings just don't match the eye test.
Just to clarify on what Fangraphs thinks of KC's staff (and specifically the Guthrie/Vargas/Chen grouping):
They've got Vargas posting a 4.52 ERA, which would be his highest in 5 years (and his highest since becoming a full-time starter)
They've got Guthrie at 4.65, which would be HIS highest in 5 years.
And they've got Chen at 4.36, which is probably about right if he pitches 160 innings in the rotation but is still higher than 3 of his past 4 seasons in KC.
None of the trends for those pitchers have changed, really. Strikeout and walk rates are all basically the same and show no signs of spiking. Fangraphs just has a hard time ever recognizing when guys have established they can out-pitch their peripherals. And it tends to project extreme regression for those guys, every year.