The Chiefs proved last year that they are still feckless when it comes to winning their own division games. Until that changes, I'm not going to be too optimistic.
I already feel like a huge homer picking 9-7. Anything greater than that is going to have to fall into the "pleasant surprise" category. I.E. we figure out how to win more than two ****ing division games in a season, and the losses we sustained in free agency are successfully filled in by the next man up.