[alnorth]

We're in a weird spot that pretty much points to doing nothing as the correct option. (at least nothing much, maybe a minor deal can be OK)

We're 5 games back of Detroit and 3.5 games back of the Wild Card with 2 months left. The Monte Carlo simulations currently have us at around a 12-17% chance of making the playoffs. (of course those odds go up if we win a few games and fall if we lose a few, but the only thing thats important is what the odds are today, since this is the trade deadline)

We're close enough that we can't wave the white flag especially given that we're the Royals, but we're far enough back that cashing in some of our valuable chips to make a run at it this year would probably be really stupid. Trading our top prospects might make our playoff odds go up to, what, 1 in 3 or so? If we had the division lead it might make sense, but in our spot we're probably not making the playoffs no matter what we do.

But probably not making the playoffs doesn't mean "we aren't making the playoffs with these guys" this year. Its unlikely, but unless you have a time machine, anyone who says otherwise is just flat-out wrong, and if we ultimately don't make the playoffs, that would not make them right as of July 31, 2014.

Shields is going to be worth a draft pick and we need him if we don't want to give up. We also need Holland if we aren't giving up. To the extent that we may want to make trades with 2015 or beyond in mind, we'll get a better deal in the winter.

So, we're in a weird no-man's land. Maybe we can pick up a mediocre outfielder for not much, but we can neither give up on our slim-but-not-zero chances at the postseason, nor should we invest further in what is probably a lost cause.