Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief
Seth Maness???? Use a first rounder to get a possible player with the upside ceiling of Seth Maness? 
According to this dude anyway, he loves all things Gator. Get to play for the team you love? I guess $300K is the tipping point for a high school kid. |
Now now - his
upside isn't Maness; that's more like his median. If you draft 10 guys just like Woodford, 3 of them bust outright, 3 of them will be in various degrees better than Maness and 4 of them would end up being Seth Maness.
It's a reasonable 'floor' to put on him. Ultimately every pitchers floor is 'arm flies off mid-pitch and he bleeds out on the mound' but it's fair to put something of a worst case major leaguer floor on him as well. With a heavy fastball and good command, reasonable development makes him Maness.
But remember, Lance Lynn gets by on nothing
but a heavy fastball and good command. So if I'm talking upside, I'm looking at Lance Lynn.
There's a way of grading prospects where you put both a players 'realistic potential' and their odds of getting there. So for instance, a guy like Bryce Harper would have come out of the draft getting a 10.0(A) - generational talent and a high likelihood of reaching it. Carlos Correa would have probably been seen as a 9.0(B); he was less of a sure thing but considered almost as talented as a guy like Harper.
With Woodford, I think you're looking at a 7.0(C) as opposed to Plummers 8.0(D).
Now the Cards know WAY more about pitching than I do (though I've generally had a pretty good eye for arm), so maybe they see him as having a higher ceiling than I do. I'd almost think they'd have to or I don't understand why they'd go over slot for him.