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Originally Posted by mr. tegu
Shields sucked in the playoffs. Volquez will almost assuredly be better. Guthrie is pitching pretty well right now and is not showing much drop off, if any, from last season.
I don't care much about ERAs with the starting pitchers on this team. The reason is that the guys with the low ERAs eat lots of innings, while ours are not doing that so much right now. But for this team, especially in the playoffs, an innings eater is almost irrelevant because we are not going to hide our bullpen. We want to feature our bullpen. If any one of our guys pitches to the lead after 5 or 6 innings, we are most likely winning that game.
We don't need a starter who can then pitch the 7th and 8th because those spots are already on lockdown. It would be nice for a starter to do that, but we don't NEED it. Which is why I don't think trading Duffy for Cueto gives us much, if any, benefit or gain. If Cueto goes 7 innings and two runs but Duffy only goes 6 innings for two runs we have not gained much, if anything, by losing Duffy.
Obviously though if we can get Cueto without losing any MLB guys that is fine. I just don't think we will do that because GMDM is going to continue to trust his process and the moves he made, specifically that Medlen will be like our trade for a starting pitcher.
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It's not about going 7 or 8 innings. I agree this team is built to use the bullpen in the playoffs. Eating innings is only important during the regular season so the bullpen is well rested for the playoffs.
But you still need a starter who can go 6 or 7 and match up with the other team's ace. Shields didn't pitch great, and we didn't win it all. That's exactly my point. Although to Shields' credit he grinded through the clinching game of the ALDS, and had a strong game against Bumgarner in Game 5... we just got completely shut down on offense.
If you think Duffy is going to give us 6 IP and 2 runs every time out in the playoffs, I agree, we shouldn't trade him. That's the million dollar question. If Duffy and Ventura are pitching closer to 5 ERA guys and giving us 5 innings and 3 runs every time out, it's going to be tougher.