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For the record, I'm not saying Cueto will solve all our problems. There's a legitimate argument against him because he had an all-time playoff meltdown in his last playoff game.
But I do think you generally need someone pitching like an ace to win. You need someone who can go toe-to-toe with another ace pitcher and give you 6 or 7 shutout innings. You guys are looking way too hard and probabilities and numbers and completely overthinking it. Even the greatest all-star offenses have been shut down when they ran into a buzzsaw like Randy Johnson, or Beckett, or Bumgarner. I've yet to see anyone give a solid example of a team that won it all with a bunch of #4-5 starters. Meanwhile you can run off 10 or 12 champs that had a guy pitching at an elite level.
That's why I didn't hate the Shields trade. You need a true #1 you can hand the ball to if you're going to win. It's the only constant. Teams with struggling offenses have succeeded, teams with all star offenses have failed. But most champions have a pitcher or two pitching at an All-Star level.
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