Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
It is unlikely, but its not crazy. Roughly speaking, if there are 12 picks for 15 teams, then the odds of the Royals getting left out two years in a row are around 4-5%. The odds that at least one team gets left out two years in a row is close to 50/50.
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Not sure how they determine the exact way they skew this, but Royals had 4.2% chance compared with Diamond Backs 18.2% chance.
Twelve teams are eligible to win a pick in Round A this year: the D-backs, Rockies, Reds, Marlins, Padres, Rays, Brewers, Indians, A's, Pirates, Royals and Cardinals.
Clubs eligible for Round A of the Competitive Balance Lottery and their odds of receiving the first pick.
Club Chance
D-backs 18.2%
Rockies 16.5%
Reds 9.5%
Marlins 8.9%
Padres 8.9%
Rays 8.9%
Brewers 6.6%
Indians 5.4%
A's 4.5%
Pirates 4.5%
Royals 4.2%
Cardinals 3.9%