Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch
Well, that's not it, WAR explains 80-90% of a teams record (chart from HardballTimes using bWAR)
We are again outplaying WAR and base runs. I'm guessing tossing 32 straight scoreless bullpen IP at your opponents will cause a lot of that |
I like WAR a lot. It just doesn't explain 100 percent of what happens for a team. I'll buy 80-90 percent as a baseline.
Even at that missing 10 percent, though, that leaves a lot of room for variance. Would an 8-win swing in either direction for a team whose WAR says it should win 85 games be shocking to you? That would make the WAR prediction 90 percent accurate.
80 percent, and all of a sudden you're talking about a 17-win swing.
I think it's a good measure but you can't rely on it without context. Same with base runs or run differential.
For example, you can have a bad team that has a lot of power and bashes the crap out of back-end starters that looks better in run differential than its record because it is blowing teams out once every few weeks.
Or you could have a good team that doesn't have an explosive offense that looks worse in run differential because they just don't blow teams out very often.
Pitching, a dominant bullpen, speed, as defense are things that can lead to a team being really great in tight games and winning them at a high percentage but not having impressive run differentials.
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