Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
So you're back to a single game instead of the 'increased sample size' argument now?
He had a good AYA last week. Smith had a great AYA the two prior weeks and was attacking downfield again this week until his brains were turned to eggs. But really, AYA isn't going to tell you much in a single game because 1 play can really skew it. AYA doesn't give you a good snapshot but it does give you a very good trend. Over large enough numbers, a few dropped passes (or hail mary's that Tyreke Hill and blown coverage bails you out on) even out.
The trends show them to be roughly even in how they attack downfield. And when you look at the actual single game process rather than results (i.e. examine the true depth of target on those throws), you get a very similar outcome.
Foles is extremely unlikely to have any discernible impact on the running game at all.
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Alex Smith had more games end of last year where he was better attacking the field. The maddening part about him is he goes in spurts where he's cool with it, then spurts where he's cool with punting.
Alex's first few games was frustrating as hell. Like so many games in his kc career, he waited until he's down two scores to make a move. I've often said when Smith is down two scores, he's actually a decently effective downfield qb. So the question is, can Alex string together a few reasonably aggressive games together in the playoffs. If big Ben or Brady Force a shootout, how quickly will Alex adapt to be aggressive. That's what makes me nervous.
Because while you say he was aggressive for two games, he has a lot of games on a chiefs uniform where he was not. And the overall Aya and air yards support that. Foles didn't prove he's a starter last week and he won't this week. But he was utilizing the receiving talent in ways Alex Smith doesn't, but should. My hope is that Foles does this again and Alex gets a good look. Because if Alex can turn a more aggressive switch on more consistently, this team will be hard to beat. If he approaches games the way he did San Diego, Pittsburgh, and last year in New England where we manage first and wait til the last minute to attack, we aren't going anywhere I'm the playoffs.