Quote:
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower
But batting 238 suggests limits on the amount of homers and RBI he can generate.
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Not really.
Striking out 25% of the time does, but BA and power are inversely related more often than not.
His fly ball rate actually went up a tick last year and his GB rate went down; that's a good sign for his power potential. And as BABIP is higher on GBs than FBs, more GBs generally means a higher BA but fewer HRs. They really aren't related apart from basic contact rates.
His xBABIP last year was .303 and his actual BABIP was .276. So he got hosed out of a handful of base hits by just raw dumb luck. If you correct for bad luck, his BA last year should've been .256. With the commensurate improvement in OBP and with the same ISO, regular batted ball luck means he's an .805 OPS guy last season in spot duty.
Again - I think folks are really underestimating his potential. If he's never any different than he is now, that's still a dangerous offensive weapon. And with just a tiny bit more contact, ideally in the form of line drives (as his LD rate was a little down), he could definitely be a legitimately strong middle of the order bat.
You want to talk about the increase in price for closers? How easy do you think it is to get your hands on young righthanded power? Closers are still nothing more than failed starters - righthanded sluggers, OTOH, are held onto like grim death.