Quote:
Originally Posted by KChiefs1
I'm wondering where they figure the percentages.
The Raiders have a 53% chance of beating the Broncos in Denver with their backup QB? The Chiefs have a 28% chance of beating San Diego? I understand the Raiders need only one thing to happen & the Chiefs need two things to happen but I don't think the Raiders have a better than 50/50 chance at Denver with McGloin.
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They just look at every possible outcome for every game. They aren't figuring in which teams are better, injuries, or anything like that. Just all 32 teams and every possible combination of wins and losses. They run all of the hundreds of different outcomes, then take what percentage of those gets the outcome you are looking at (bye, 5th seed, etc.).
In other words, they see that the Chiefs need a win and the Raiders a loss for KC to win the division. It doesn't look at how likely the Chiefs are to beat SD or the Raiders to beat the Broncos, just that they need to win and the Raiders need to lose to get that outcome.