Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch
Hes indisputably overrated, but you're the one who argues against defensive metrics, which are a major drag on his WAR totals. He does have very good clutch numbers too, so by WPA the past two seasons, he's 9th right behind Encarnacion and ahead of Belt, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu etc. (And #2 in "clutch")
|
Over what period? I see him being in the 15 range (depending on whether or not you want to count someone like Carpenter, Encarnacion or Napoli as 1b). And remember, WAR tends to drag down all 1b equally because they get a sizeable negative positional adjustment regardless of whether or not they man that position competently.
Though I'm actually pretty surprised to see that the defensive numbers are as poor as they are. I generally just took it on faith that he was a good defensive 1b. That said, as you've noted, I don't trust defensive metrics and they're especially unreliable over a single season (really need about 3 years to get a decent sample for most of them). I suspect Hosmer's actually a pretty good defensive 1b, dWAR be damned.
Baseball reference was harder still on him, giving him an oWAR behind Pujols, and Pujols is ass these days. His WPA was behind
Brandon Moss and you know how I feel about Brandon Moss. It seems like you're cherry picking quite a bit here.
The guy's just not been what he was supposed to be. Your hope has to be that he combines the all around offensive performance he had in 2015 with the power he found in 2016 and makes the same leap that Freddie Freeman made last season.
But 3,700 PAs is a long way into a career for a light to suddenly turn on. Generally, you are the guy you appear to be by that point.
Personally, I would still bank on Moustakas having a better career, though the risk seems far greater given his injury issues and Hosmer's relative durability. I'm a big fan of Moose.