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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Over what period? I see him being in the 15 range (depending on whether or not you want to count someone like Carpenter, Encarnacion or Napoli as 1b).
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Past 2 seasons. Past 4 seasons, he's #10 in WPA and #3 in clutch. For whatever reason, he really does perform when it matters most.
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And remember, WAR tends to drag down all 1b equally because they get a sizeable negative positional adjustment regardless of whether or not they man that position competently.
Though I'm actually pretty surprised to see that the defensive numbers are as poor as they are. I generally just took it on faith that he was a good defensive 1b. That said, as you've noted, I don't trust defensive metrics and they're especially unreliable over a single season (really need about 3 years to get a decent sample for most of them). I suspect Hosmer's actually a pretty good defensive 1b, dWAR be damned.
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Been litigated here before so I won't rehash, all depends on one's belief (or lack thereof) in defensive metrics.
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Baseball reference was harder still on him, giving him an oWAR behind Pujols, and Pujols is ass these days. His WPA was behind Brandon Moss and you know how I feel about Brandon Moss. It seems like you're cherry picking quite a bit here.
The guy's just not been what he was supposed to be. Your hope has to be that he combines the all around offensive performance he had in 2015 with the power he found in 2016 and makes the same leap that Freddie Freeman made last season.
But 3,700 PAs is a long way into a career for a light to suddenly turn on. Generally, you are the guy you appear to be by that point.
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I agreed he's overrated and he should be a much, much better hitter than he is. He does seem to have an every-other-year thing going tho with 2013 and 2015 being quite good, 2014 + 2016 being crap.
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Personally, I would still bank on Moustakas having a better career, though the risk seems far greater given his injury issues and Hosmer's relative durability. I'm a big fan of Moose.
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Correct. I've got Moose at 30 jacks this season, and would be my #1 (and probably only) priority for extension.