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Quesadilla Joe · 03-24-2018, 11:09 AM

Football Outsiders' "QBASE" projection system loves them some Baker Mayfield...

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma Sooners

Spoiler!

Projecting Mayfield
Mean Projection, Years 3-5: 1480 DYAR
Bust (< 500 DYAR) 29.3%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 21.8%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 20.7%
Elite (>2500 DYAR) 28.2%

Baker Mayfield's stats at Oklahoma were completely ridiculous, so it's no surprise that a stat-based projection system such as QBASE loves him with the heat of a thousand suns.

One of the stats included in QBASE is adjusted passing yards per attempt. This metric looks at yards per attempt, then adds 20 yards for each touchdown and subtracts 45 yards for each interception. Mayfield is the only quarterback in FBS history to top 12.0 APYA in a season, and he's done it twice: 12.3 APYA in 2016, and then 12.9 APYA in 2017. Mayfield also completed more than 70 percent of his passes as a senior, and Oklahoma's offense was No. 1 in Football Outsiders' passing S&P+ rating.

On top of this, the No. 1 predictor of NFL success for top quarterback draft picks is still how many years of starting experience they had in college. Mayfield is the only one of this year's top prospects with four years of starting experience. (Luke Falk, likely to be drafted later, started for three and a half seasons.)

As with Rosen, QBASE docks Mayfield a bit because he played with high-quality teammates. Both OT Orlando Brown and TE Mark Andrews are likely to be drafted in the first three rounds this year, and WR Marquise Brown and G Ben Powers are likely to go in the first three rounds of the 2019 draft. However, Mayfield does not get docked for playing an easy Big 12 schedule. Because of the Big 12 championship game, the Sooners had to play twice against TCU, which at No. 15 in S&P+ was the Big 12's best pass defense. Mayfield also had to face Ohio State (No. 12) and Georgia (No. 6), so the average pass defense he faced was ranked 52.8, the same as Rosen and better than any of this year's prospects other than Darnold.

Put all these elements together, and Mayfield has the fourth-highest QBASE projection of any prospect since 1997. The only players projected higher were Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb.

Josh Allen

Spoiler!

QBASE loathes Josh Allen (no surprise, his stats are garbage)

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/stor...back-prospects

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech (47)

Spoiler!

Mahomes' QBASE is actually slightly higher than Darnold, Rosen, and Lamar Jacksons score, but they say Air Raid QB's seem to have inflated scores.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/in...017/qbase-2017

Top 10 in QBASE since 1997

Spoiler!

03-24-2018, 11:09 AM	#23847
Quesadilla Joe Abolish The Salary Cap! Join Date: Mar 2008 Casino cash: $3858675	Football Outsiders' "QBASE" projection system loves them some Baker Mayfield... Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma Sooners Spoiler! Projecting Mayfield Mean Projection, Years 3-5: 1480 DYAR Bust (< 500 DYAR) 29.3% Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 21.8% Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 20.7% Elite (>2500 DYAR) 28.2% Baker Mayfield's stats at Oklahoma were completely ridiculous, so it's no surprise that a stat-based projection system such as QBASE loves him with the heat of a thousand suns. One of the stats included in QBASE is adjusted passing yards per attempt. This metric looks at yards per attempt, then adds 20 yards for each touchdown and subtracts 45 yards for each interception. Mayfield is the only quarterback in FBS history to top 12.0 APYA in a season, and he's done it twice: 12.3 APYA in 2016, and then 12.9 APYA in 2017. Mayfield also completed more than 70 percent of his passes as a senior, and Oklahoma's offense was No. 1 in Football Outsiders' passing S&P+ rating. On top of this, the No. 1 predictor of NFL success for top quarterback draft picks is still how many years of starting experience they had in college. Mayfield is the only one of this year's top prospects with four years of starting experience. (Luke Falk, likely to be drafted later, started for three and a half seasons.) As with Rosen, QBASE docks Mayfield a bit because he played with high-quality teammates. Both OT Orlando Brown and TE Mark Andrews are likely to be drafted in the first three rounds this year, and WR Marquise Brown and G Ben Powers are likely to go in the first three rounds of the 2019 draft. However, Mayfield does not get docked for playing an easy Big 12 schedule. Because of the Big 12 championship game, the Sooners had to play twice against TCU, which at No. 15 in S&P+ was the Big 12's best pass defense. Mayfield also had to face Ohio State (No. 12) and Georgia (No. 6), so the average pass defense he faced was ranked 52.8, the same as Rosen and better than any of this year's prospects other than Darnold. Put all these elements together, and Mayfield has the fourth-highest QBASE projection of any prospect since 1997. The only players projected higher were Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb. Josh Allen Spoiler! Projecting Allen Mean Projection in Years 3-5: -83 DYAR Bust (< 500 DYAR) 62.7% Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 20.7% Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 11.5% Elite (>2500 DYAR) 5.2% QBASE loathes Josh Allen (no surprise, his stats are garbage) http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/stor...back-prospects Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech (47) Spoiler! Mean Projection in Years 3-5: 656 DYAR Bust (< 500 DYAR) 45.7% Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 27.0% Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 17.9% Elite (>2500 DYAR) 9.4% Mahomes has the highest QBASE projection in the class of 2017. He led all college quarterbacks last year in Expected Points Added on passing plays. He's only 21 years old, so he's got room to grow, but he also was a three-year starter at Texas Tech, so he has experience. And he put up huge numbers despite the fact that none of his receivers or offensive linemen are likely to be drafted either this year or in 2018. Nonetheless, Mahomes' projection sets off alarm bells -- or more specifically, very loud Air Raid sirens. Every single prospect from an Air Raid offense has underperformed his QBASE projection in the NFL, although obviously you can't shut the book on Jared Goff after just one season. Playing in the Air Raid doesn't mean Mahomes' skills can't translate to the NFL, but it seems clear at this point that the scheme juices passing stats in a way that leads to QBASE overestimating these prospects. Any team that wants to draft Mahomes probably needs to discount his college performance and be very sure that his skills fit its offensive scheme. Mahomes' QBASE is actually slightly higher than Darnold, Rosen, and Lamar Jacksons score, but they say Air Raid QB's seem to have inflated scores. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/in...017/qbase-2017 Top 10 in QBASE since 1997 Spoiler! Last edited by Quesadilla Joe; 03-24-2018 at 11:16 AM..
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