ChiefsPlanet - View Single Post - Correlations Between Punting and Defense and Punting and Winning

kccrow · 04-21-2018, 07:13 PM

Number of Punters above and below one standard deviation from the mean by year:

2017: >1STDEV = 5, <1STDEV = 3
2016: >1STDEV = 6, <1STDEV = 4
2015: >1STDEV = 6, <1STDEV = 6
2014: >1STDEV = 7, <1STDEV = 8
2013: >1STDEV = 2, <1STDEV = 5

Here are the approximate ranges within 1STDEV of the mean, so the data I worked with were for punters above and below these:

2017 1STDEV = 42.98% to 30.42%
2016 1STDEV = 44.69% to 29.99%
2015 1STDEV = 42.29% to 27.85%
2014 1STDEV = 41.68% to 28.90%
2013 1STDEV = 41.41% to 28.59%

I combined these into 1 list to get some data, and so I ended up with 26 punters in total in each category.

>1STDEV
Average %IN20 = 46.4% (Min 42.5%)
Average W% = 59.6%
Average PTS/G = 20.9
Average YDS/G = 344.4

<1STDEV
Average %IN20 = 26.1% (Max 30.0%)
Average W% = 35.1%
Average PTS/G = 24.2
Average YDS/G = 352.6

If I take the data set as a whole I get the following correlations:
IN20% to YDS/G = -0.140
IN20% to PTS/G = -0.430
IN20% to W% = 0.565

What I've learned. It is better to have a great punter in terms of %IN20 than an absolutely shitty punter. That said, overall that means you need to find a punter that is within 1STDEV of the mean or better. It may indicate as well that if you have a punter that is better than one standard deviation from the mean, he is an advantage.

In case you're curious, here's the best and worst through the past 5 years in terms of %IN 20.

Spoiler!

04-21-2018, 07:13 PM	#51
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $-1230000	Number of Punters above and below one standard deviation from the mean by year: 2017: >1STDEV = 5, <1STDEV = 3 2016: >1STDEV = 6, <1STDEV = 4 2015: >1STDEV = 6, <1STDEV = 6 2014: >1STDEV = 7, <1STDEV = 8 2013: >1STDEV = 2, <1STDEV = 5 Here are the approximate ranges within 1STDEV of the mean, so the data I worked with were for punters above and below these: 2017 1STDEV = 42.98% to 30.42% 2016 1STDEV = 44.69% to 29.99% 2015 1STDEV = 42.29% to 27.85% 2014 1STDEV = 41.68% to 28.90% 2013 1STDEV = 41.41% to 28.59% I combined these into 1 list to get some data, and so I ended up with 26 punters in total in each category. >1STDEV Average %IN20 = 46.4% (Min 42.5%) Average W% = 59.6% Average PTS/G = 20.9 Average YDS/G = 344.4 <1STDEV Average %IN20 = 26.1% (Max 30.0%) Average W% = 35.1% Average PTS/G = 24.2 Average YDS/G = 352.6 If I take the data set as a whole I get the following correlations: IN20% to YDS/G = -0.140 IN20% to PTS/G = -0.430 IN20% to W% = 0.565 What I've learned. It is better to have a great punter in terms of %IN20 than an absolutely shitty punter. That said, overall that means you need to find a punter that is within 1STDEV of the mean or better. It may indicate as well that if you have a punter that is better than one standard deviation from the mean, he is an advantage. In case you're curious, here's the best and worst through the past 5 years in terms of %IN 20. Spoiler! Best Punters 2017 1. Chris Jones, DAL 2. Sam Koch, BAL 3. Johnny Hekker, LAR 4. Dustin Colquitt, KC 5. Thomas Morstead, NO Worst Punters 2017 1. Brad Wing, NYG 2. Justin Vogel, GB 3. Britton Colquitt, CLE Best Punters 2016 1. Bryan Anger, TB 2. Johnny Hekker, LAR 3. Dustin Colquitt, KC 4. Matt Bosher, ATL 5. Sam Koch, BAL 6. Jeff Locke, MIN Worst Punters 2016 1. Britton Colquitt, CLE 2. Colton Schmidt, BUF 3. Bradley Pinion, SF 4. Kevin Huber, CIN Best Punters 2015 1. Dustin Colquitt, KC 2. Marquette King, OAK 3. Jordan Berry, PIT 4. Brad Wing, NYG 5. Johnny Hekker, LAR 6. Ryan Allen, NE Worst Punters 2015 1. Mike Scifres, SD 2. Tim Mathay, GB 3. Shane Lechler, HOU 4. Britton Colquitt, DEN 5. Jacob Schum, TB 6. Colton Schmidt, BUF Best Punters 2014 1. Jon Ryan, SEA 2. Donnie Jones, PHI 3. Dustin Colquitt, KC 4. Pat McAfee, IND 5. Sam Koch, BAL 6. Drew Butler, ARI 7. Sam Martin, DET Worst Punters 2014 1. Michael Koenen, TB 2. Bryan Anger, JAX 3. Spencer Lanning, CLE 4. Jeff Locke, MIN 5. Pat O'Donnell, CHI 6. Marquette King, OAK 7. Tim Masthay, GB 8. Tress Way, WAS Last edited by kccrow; 04-21-2018 at 07:49 PM..
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