Quote:
Originally Posted by kccrow
I agree with the article you posted as far as how this contract is a great deal for KC in that those first 3 years of the contract represent an amazingly fair $61 million, plus it captures nearly the entirety of guaranteed money.
And that guaranteed part is a huge deal. I really thought a contract like this would have a huge signing bonus followed by a huge option bonus in year 6 but it doesn't.
I also think the contract, with its longevity, would be great for KC if Mahomes plays it out. That said, I think this is a deal that goes back to the table in 5 years.
Where it's a great deal for Mahomes is that this contract can be virtually ripped up at any point and redone because there isn't a huge, looming signing bonus that creates issues. It's all roster bonuses. If Mahomes is ever playing for below market and wants more, he has a contract that allows it to happen quite easily.
|
The bolded part is the thing I think most people are missing out on.
I forget what year it is -- I think it's year 6 or 7 when the cap hit explodes. The above articles suggest "well it can be spread over five years if converted to a signing bonus" but I think that's the year the parties return to the table to renegotiate. Because otherwise Mahomes will engulf the cap, unless the cap absolutely explodes.
In effect, as a result, I think it's actually deal that, after that point, is glorified window dressing in those last 4 or 5 years. I roll my eyes when people say "Mahomes could have earned more if he had just signed for 5 years and then came back for another contract!" That's basically what this deal is.
Which, in that regard, I will admit I don't fully understand the guarantees, but it doesn't seem like a great deal for Mahomes. Because the front half of the contract dramatically undersells him. I think he's unlikely to be the top paid QB in the NFL any of those years leading up to that forced-renegotiating year.
Reminds me of LeBron in that sense, I suppose, because LeBron wasn't the top paid player on his team until he returned to Cleveland. He'd been to the Finals five times by then, winning two titles and easily becoming the face of the entire sport across the planet.
I think we're facing similar insane value with Mahomes. But I suspect we'll be paying the piper when negotiations are revisited in the future, but that's 2027's problem.