[lewdog]

S&P up 11% already this year. It averages 10% a year.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance...211605122.html

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) historically averages a 10% return per year. So far this year, it is up over 11%. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to see a normal correction or some technical digestion before heading higher later in the year. Also, since 1980, the average intra-year correction is -14.3%.

A few sentiment measures are showing high levels of bullishness. For example, the latest NAAIM Exposure Index, which measures exposure by active investment managers, is at its highest level in over two months. Any minor pullback would shake out some of this excess bullishness, as investors are still quick to rush out the door when the market starts to drop.

I would like to stress that I am not turning bearish, just cautious over the near-term. There are many strong factors in the market’s favor from now until year-end. The economy continues to return to normal, earnings are improving, and the Fed is still providing a tremendous backdrop for the market. They are not raising rates anytime soon, nor are they slowing down or “tapering” their bond purchases. This will continue to provide an equity friendly environment into year-end. I simply think over the next two months, a 4%-6% pullback would be normal and nothing out of the ordinary. The best way to describe my current stance is short-term cautious but still longer-term bullish.