[Hammock Parties]

overconfident...if they go man, we roast them

Watched a video on the Chiefs using a lot of 1-4 splits pre-snap to mess with the 2-deep zone stuff, especially Cover 6, teams have been throwing at them for the last 18 months. Lining up 4 guys to one side, or 3 but motioning to 4 at the snap, to flood zones even more efficiently and even out the numbers against the "box coverage" to the strong side. Normally a Cover 6 would have 4 in coverage over 3 WRs to the strong side and 3 over 2 to the weak side, so numbers advantage both ways. But motioning to a 4th strong side messes with that box coverage by making it 4v4 instead of 4v3.

This has worked for them this season because it causes all kinds of issues for zone defenses and it's one of the main reasons their offense is suddenly #1 in the league again despite not having a REAL WR1 on the roster. It's also a huge reason why Kelce has absolutely gone of this season, as I'll touch on more below.

But it also seems like the kind of gimmick Lou will figure out, if not before the game at least by halftime and adjust to it. The way you counter this is by playing more Man, which we could do since they don't have any WR1s, or by shifting the 2 deep underneath zones to the strong side to get a numbers advantage again.

Both of those situations will leave Kelce in a 1v1, and he'll likely like up as the backside X opposite the 4 man split strong, just to try and leverage his match up. Meaning Flowers (or Dax) are is going to be HUGE in this one because that will be their matchup in Man. But it will also be down to Apple or CTB to do the same from some Cover 6 looks. They'll basically be playing Match or Solo Lock from the weak side, and while it might be possible to shift Apple or CTB to the slot to put Flowers on the boundary vs Kelce, that would be a huge schematic change to make. So these two will likely have to hold up on the weak side for us to play the 2 deep stuff Lou loves. Otherwise we'll be stuck in Man a lot so we can get Flowers over him.

All that said, I have faith in Lou. He has shut down KC in both 2nd halves, and shown us he's the king of HT adjustments in plenty of other games. He'll figure it out.