Quote:
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch
The crazy thing to me is, the math favors going for the 2 point conversion every time, regardless of anything else. Chip Kelly understood this well.
So if the math slightly favors going for it with all else equal, it should be a no-brainer to go for it when your kicker turns into Steve Sax. But they won't do it.
This same logic applies to the Chiefs with Butker imo. KC should go for it all the time.
|
That's the whole problem... if you're scoring 3 or 4 touchdowns in a game and going for 2 every time only works out slightly in favor, you're still taking the risk that you're on the wrong side of that every single game, mutually exclusive of the times it works out.
Make the 2
Miss it
Make it
...yay, you have a whole extra point.
Miss the 2
Make it
Miss it
...well, -1 this game.
...and you don't know if you'll get that extra chance to make up for a miss.
Points are too valuable in any given game to simply say across 100 chances, you'll come out on top +5 points.
And idiots like Staley have ****ed it up plenty of times, overthinking it and going for (and missing) early, and then kicking EPs late when they should actually going for 2, etc.