Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox
I analyzed all WR who retired after 2000 and had more career yardage that Deandre Hopkins, a total of 25 WR.
At this stage of their careers, (after the season which began when they were 30 years old) only four players have gained more receiving yards at this stage of their career: Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, and Calvin Johnson. This despite having two consecutive years with significant missed games (one due to injury and one due to suspension). So the talent is among the best ever.
Among this group of 25 WRs, at this stage of their careers, they had gained about 64% of their career yardage. Based on the average of these 25 WRs, we might expect something like the following over the next 5 years from Deandre Hopkins:
Year Age Yardage
2023 31 1300
2024 32 1250
2025 33 1150
2026 34 950
2027 35 800
2028 36 600
Or if we ignore his superior performance among this group to date, and only consider average performance from ages 31-33 we could expect:
Year Age Yardage
2023 31 1000
2024 32 1000
2025 33 900
A long term deal where we were essentially tied to him for the next three years has relatively low risk. He should be quite productive over that time span, if he can perform at an average level among players of his caliber.
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As Hopkins ages, he's probably going to look more and more like Larry Fitzgerald, after his 30th birthday. He's going to lose some of his athleticism/speed over the next few years, but still be very productive as a possession WR due to his superior route-running skills and the best hands in football.
Btw, 32-36 year-old Larry posted 4900+ yards (3 seasons over 1000 yds) and 31 TDs. without an elite QB.
Signing DeAndre to a multi-year deal, even a 5-year deal isn't nearly as crazy as some seem to think.