Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
Four-seamer runs above average is negative for the first time since 2014, and his run value is negative despite him seeing about 40 percent of last season's worth of fastballs already. Some of that can be luck, but given the lack of a shift this year, I wonder if xBA needs further calibration since the delta between his results and expectations is so wide.
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Technically, ALL of that can be luck. It's not a predictive stat and doesn't claim to be. It's a snapshot.
And look at his spray charts - 31% to pull, 39% up the middle, 30% opposite field. As good or better a contact distribution than he's ever had in his career - the shift ban won't have created any issues for him.
His average exit velocity on fastballs is 94.5 mph (highest of his career) and his launch angle is 18% on them. That's...pretty much perfect.
There's just not a single thing to dislike about his quality of contact or contact distribution.