Where numbers are concerned, two-point conversions have been successful about
47.5% of the time that they’ve been attempted since 2015 i.e., roughly half of the extra point kick conversion rate which sits at 95%
https://en.as.com/nfl/what-is-the-tw...nd-the-play-n/
So, basically it's a coin flip on if you make the 2 point conversion. You expect Mahomes in that situation has a better chance than most.
I get the logic of getting the ball first for the 3rd possession, it doesn't take the QB on the other side of the field into account or them going for 2.
I wish the Chief's players didn't tell them what their plan was just in case we get into that situation in the future.