|
Parlays seem to be a bad bet. For arguement's sake, let's say the odds being on the winning side of any individual game are 50/50.
So his odds of winning the parlay are (0.5*0.5*0.5) = 0.125 or 1 in 8. The payout is 1 in 6. After figuring for the 10% vig, his expected return is $41.25 on the $50 bet.
Had he bet equally on the three games independently without the parlay, his expected return would be $47.50 on a $50 bet.
Over the long term, he is essentially giving the bookie $6.25 everytime he makes that bet.
|