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Old 08-24-2005, 03:05 PM   #19
oldandslow oldandslow is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Casino cash: $7357
Red:

I will admit that there are facters that you cannot be familiar with. One is that I live in SD. The state is actually LOSING population each year, except for Sioux Falls. There are demographics going on here that one could not believe. Schools shutting down for lack of kids etc.

On top of that, I honestly believe we are on the verge of a major recession. Fed monotary policy, fed overspending, and oil are going to drive it. I am not the only one who thinks so.

The countdown to recession this fall has begun.
Wall Street Examiner
August 25, 2005

It may still be one to two months away but the countdown is on. The durable goods orders report is just that orders, and not actual sales. The large 4.9% drop in durable goods orders represents most clearly a sudden loss in confidence by the business sector. So far during 2005, it was the heavy spending by business that has propelled the economy forward not the consumer - who on a per person basis barely has maintained their inflation and tax adjusted income.

At first we will see small, minor drops in economic activity. As we enter September, the slowdown will be more obvious. Factors exerting negative pull on the economy are rising debt repayments (household debt is 56% higher than 5 years ago), low (zero) savings rate, soaring energy bills, increased tax rate, slowdown in new credit growth (mostly mortgages), and the possibility of major business bankruptcies, along with many personal bankruptcies, in September ahead of new federal bankruptcy rules in October.
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