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Originally Posted by Bugeater
So there is 0 probability that we will win 15 games?
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Questions like these are very useful to me in evaluating how realistic the my predictions are. Good question.
There have been three 15-1 teams (Bears, Vikings and Steelers) out of about 900 regular seasons in the 30 years since the NFL went to 16 games. Or about a 10% chance of getting one in any given season. When I looked at all the teams together, there was only a 5% chance of getting a 15-1 team in 2006. I noticed the Vegas projected wins tends to group teams around 8-8. This probably accounts for the underestimation of having a 15 win team in 2006.
On repeated simulations my program predicts a very slight chance of KC gettnig to 15 wins. Correcting for the effect above I'd estimate KC's actual chance of getting 15 wins to be between 0.2 and 0.5%.