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Originally Posted by Donger
I personally think that crude is overvalued at near $100. This has a lot to do with speculation and the weak dollar, and not so much to do with supply and demand, IMO. I still think it will drop back to ~$70.00 by year's end.
I hope so, anyway.
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I don't believe we will, but even so, price is on a steady trend upward.
We have been producing a steady 84/85 mbd for two years with a steep rise in demand.
With skyrocketing price we should see much more supply if it was available. There are a myriad of reasons why its not, not the least of which, many fields are peaking. Add China demand, Mexican floods, the North Sea decline, the middle east disaster and what is left is 100 dollar oil.
I believe it will go much higher before demand destruction cuts the price.
BTW - wholesale oil futures for April just beat 2.60. We will see 4 - 4.50 gas in the spring.