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Originally Posted by oldandslow
We'll agree to disagree then. I would argue that supply is much tighter than you indicate. Further, even if crude production is ongoing, we are talking about using trillions of barrels in a little over 150 years. It ain't being made at nowhere near that rate.
BTW just for giggles...
Year Cost (gas) Jan 1
1918 $0.25
1928 $0.21
1938 $0.19
1948 $0.27
1958 $0.31
1968 $0.35
1978 $0.84
1988 $1.02
1998 $1.17
2008 $3.06
Obviously the greatest leap in nearly 100 years was between 98 and 08 - The great depression only impacted gas by 2 cents (demand destruction). The 70's crisis more than doubled it. That caused a major recession (the Carter years) Now we are talking about tripling it. Ugh.
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I don't dispute that PRESENT supply and demand are tight. I dispute the notion that it is tight because actual crude in the ground is running out. It isn't. As you point out, there is plenty left out there, but it becomes harder and more expensive to produce. If the economics make sense, it will be drilled and in the case of shale, "mined."