Okay I've always thought this energy market was due to basic supply of crude issues, if it looks like shit and it smells like shit, it's shit, but there was reason to doubt because there are still plenty of guys in suits who say otherwise.
But this came out today:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1211...googlenews_wsj
Oil Monitor to Slash Estimate Of World's Supply of Crude
By Neil King Jr. and Peter Fritsch
Word Count: 1,215
The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of a large study of the condition of world's top oil fields. Its findings won't be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude-oil supplies could be far tighter than previously thought.
The IEA has predicted for several years that crude-oil supplies will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels
Of course the prices on crude futures are skyrocketing today in response. Folks, there are still going to be people who disagree, but the reality is this most likely a supply problem. We're not running out of oil but we can no longer produce it fast enough to fuel the global economy. We've probably peaked.
It's easy of course for people to point at crude futures speculation and say that's what is causing the high prices but in shortages of a commodity speculation is always the leader. So yes speculation drives the price, but speculation is inevitable in the face of supply issues so that doesn't mean that the problem isn't there.
Donger I know you've been on the other side of the fence for awhile now so I'm interested in your thoughts on this.