Thread: Chiefs Cassel or Sanchez?
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Old 04-12-2009, 08:49 AM   #346
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Messier View Post
Any rookie is a risk because the college game is so different from the pros, and QB is the riskiest of the positions, and hardest to evaluate. The odds are good that Sanchez or Stafford will flame out, they both could. That's why everyone points back the 1983 QB class as such an amazing story, because of how rare it is to get 3 great QB's in one class. In 1999 there were 5 QB's taken in the first round only one has turned out to be really good, while another is just hanging on in the league.

I think you have less than a 50/50 shot that a first round QB will be a reliable starter in the NFL.
Its about 70% success rate for a top 5 pick at QB.
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