ChiefsPlanet - View Single Post - Where would you draft a K that could do this??

**Rain Man** · 04-23-2009, 11:34 AM

Just to throw a little contrarian thought in here, think about this.

If you put him at your own 45 and he makes 75% of his kicks, that means that he produces 2.25 points on average whenever you stall out at your 45. (75%*3 points).

But of the 25% of the time he misses, the opponent will now have the ball at YOUR 45. How likely is it in that case that they'll score? There's some expected value to giving up field position on the misses, too, though I don't have the initiative to calculate it.

04-23-2009, 11:34 AM	#37
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-572449 VARSITY	Just to throw a little contrarian thought in here, think about this. If you put him at your own 45 and he makes 75% of his kicks, that means that he produces 2.25 points on average whenever you stall out at your 45. (75%*3 points). But of the 25% of the time he misses, the opponent will now have the ball at YOUR 45. How likely is it in that case that they'll score? There's some expected value to giving up field position on the misses, too, though I don't have the initiative to calculate it. __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
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