Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix
Here's the problem. Even if you assume 75% of the time is in ALL conditions (because if it's just a generic 75% of the time, then I gotta assume he's a dome guy, and he ain't kicking no 75% from your own 45 in New England or Green Bay in January), then 25% of the time you're setting the other team up on your own 45. Chances that the other guys get at least 3 are very high, and 7 aren't that bad.
Don't get me wrong, he's the greatest kicker ever, but even that guy is NOT a HOF QB or RB in terms of his impact on the game.
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That's actually a really good point. I was thinking that guy is a top 10 pick based on his ability to directly impact the game (same line of thought I use when I'm talking about picking up Pat White).
But then you have to ask yourself how often he'd actually be used. Even if he hits 3/4, I gotta believe that in any close game, the head coach would probably call for the punt if he's in his own territory as there's a 25% chance that he'll be giving the opposition excellent field position. Granted, that's a Herm way of viewing it, but I think we underestimate how conservative most NFL head coaches are.
I'd still probably take him very high up in the first because I think anytime you can get a weapon that gives you a direct advantage on the scoreboard, you have to do it. At the same time, props on an interesting wrinkle that I hadn't considered.