Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
Here's a random blueprint thrown together … I think you really need to commit to young guys for the rest of the year and focus on building for 2012 and 2013.
Trade Guillen. Eat part of the contract. Get a decent (B-level/solid major league starter) prospect back.
Trade DeJesus. Get a good (A/B) reliever back.
And here's the thing that would be really bold... really crazy... but something that I think might really set things up for 2012.
First, let's be honest: The chances of resigning Zack Greinke are about nil. He's gone after 2012 (and possibly mid-year next year if the Royals trade). So … why not be REALLY proactive. Trade him now, get max value for him.
I'd knock on the Devil Rays door. They have a deep farm system, and a great team that could become a World Series contender with a TRUE No. 1 pitcher. Think about Greinke pitching with a GREAT defense behind him...
In return, I think, for a true No. 1 with two years left on a reasonable contract, you can get something to the effect of: Reid Brignac, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. An elite, A-level prospect (Hellickson) and two guys in Brignac and Davis who are at worst good big-league starters with true star potential.
Add those three to the talent pool in the minor leagues, and then you're really set up to bring up a talented, deep pool of cheap, controllable talent that you can hang on to and play together at the big league level for 4-6 years (worst case).
Two years from now, rotation looks like this:
Davis (potential strong no. 2)
Hellickson (potential ace)
Montgomery (potential ace)
Crow (potential strong no. 2)
Arguelles/Dwyer/Hochevar
Lineup:
C – FA (holding place for Myers)
1B – Butler
2B – Aviles
SS – Brignac
3B – Moose
OF – This pool would include David Lough (a DeJesus clone), Gordon if he does anything (unlikely), Derrick Robinsons, and whatever you can pick up through FA or in trade returns.
DH – Hosmer
Bench would include Callaspo, and Ka'ahuie.
It's a radical move, and I would miss Greinke... but I can deal with that if I'm confident the return would lead to long-term success.
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I really don't disagree with any of that.
Two nitpicks:
* Guillen is a sunk cost. Pay his entire salary to facilitate a trade, or be willing to outright release him if nobody bites. It's important to just get him off the team.
* Trade DeJesus for anything of value. Trading players for a certain position is the mistake Baird made with Beltran ("We need a C, 3B and a P"). I'd rather acquire the best talent out there and then deal with positions later. Someone else could move or we could make another trade to loosen the logjam.
As for the Greinke situation, unfortunately I tend to agree with you. His contract is not lined up well with the current crop of prospects. Just as they are supposed to mature and start competing, Zack becomes a FA. That's the risk DM took drafting HS talent instead of college talent that might've come to the bigs earlier (Smoak, Beckham, etc.).
It would kill me to see Zack go, and I'm not sure I trust DM to get the right guys in return (he'd probably seek yet more "toolsy" Joey Gathright types). But theoretically, I think it's the right move to make.